What you asked us to imagine just a few months ago has come to pass in Northern Israel. With targeted, episodic military ops continuing in the West Bank, paralysis of Eilat as a port city, and the Gaza buffer zone creation, Israeli GDP and IDF are in challenging times. Perhaps, American readers may further contextualize Israel's economic and military challenges better using the map of New Jersey and the bordering States of Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware as context--FYI land mass and population of New Jersey are nearly identical to the State of Israel. Israel's circumstances are the equivalent of the State of New Jersey resigned to (1) the depopulation of Sussex, Morris, and Bergen Counties (if Hezbollah was situated in southern New York State), (2) the loss of Cape May county as a viable port and Salem nuclear reactor vulnerability to attack (if Houthi/Yemeni missiles and drones were being regularly launched from northern Delaware, (3) daily terrorist threats requiring Army/National Guard deployment into communities in Hudson, Passaic, and Essex Counties (if Palestinian Islamic Jihad was ensconced in Brooklyn and Staten Island), and (4) Mercer, Cumberland, and Salem Counties western borders now were a neutral zone (if Hamas was operating from Philadelphia). As a singular State, continued New Jersey GDP decline would presage existential territorial disintegration. In the presence of "a more perfect union", New Jersey has no enemy forces on (or proximal to) its northern, eastern, western, or southern borders and New Jersey remains economically viable . Perhaps Israel's IDF maintaining its conventional and nuclear weapons posture whilst also entering into a "less than perfect union" (with KSA, Persian Gulf States, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt) under a common US strategic defense umbrella could provide multiple options to contain/remove Iran (includes Lebanon, Syria, and south-central Iraq) and mitigate further Israeli military, civilian, and economic injuries. <hands in praying position>
All this is true. Also, there's a price to be paid for allowing rot to set in for two decades in Gaza and Lebanon. To be sure Israel grew tremendously in this time of relative quiet. However, her enemies grew as well and cleaning out two decades of rot will take time, blood and support.
Great! You now have a perfect motivation to pour your heart out directly to God in conversation! This is actually why all of us are here, to develop a serious and deep connection with him. Its one of the most important things we can do.
the current President Biden seems enthralled with his leftist advisors like Blinken, Harris and maybe her Jewish husband.....and who knows who else....likewise the Dem party with Pelosi openly anti Israel and Schumer....a nothing. The UN? moving beyond the Litani....forget about anything on that score....Israel as a I just watched with Melanie Phillips interviewed by Brendan O Neil>>>> Israel is demeaned by BBC and NY Times....."tit for tat" in the North. Is it true that there is tourism in Lebanon? No displacement from the south of Lebanon? Or they are not permitted to flee the way the Israelis have been removed.....the drug use,, families dissolving ...that is a result of the war against Israel I'm not aware of.
Hezbollah is a bigger piece to bite than Hamas. The Israeli government and military are probably right to bring it to an end with Hamas before engaging seriously with Hezbollah in the north.
It is puzzling to see how Israel is working through different scenarios to bring the hostages home but keeps losing people in the North. Is it a complete lack of strategy or a paralysing fear of escalating the war with Hezbollah? I don’t get it. Hamas and Hezbollah will only negotiate if the outcomes are in their favor, never to benefit Israel. Isn’t now the time to put out a message that Israel is prepared to respond aggressively against Hezbollah and Iran, if necessary?
"Israel desperately wants to avoid all-out war". That statement in your article says it all. They are already in an all-our war. I think Netanyahu has outlived his usefulness. The way things are going, I can see where Israel ceases to exist. Who in their right mind would allow terrorist groups to depopulate a signifant portion of their country. This is exactly what's happening.
Talk of a ceasefire, is basically sealing Israel's fate. Hamas, Hezbollah see Israeli weakness. As far as America, under Biden? He's a joke. He Obama clan who controls the administration have it out for Israel and keep emboldening Iran. Why would they want to strenghten Iran that has pledged genocide.
As I've stated in a war, you go all out to win. It's unlikely that many hostages are left alived, and if they are, their lives are irreparably damaged by the Hamas subhumans.
It's looking to me that Israel has lost the war and terrorism has won.
Genocide Joe is going to lose, which means it's over for them. For example, Palestine means he loses in Russia as well. How can Genocide Joe call Putin a bully now that Genocide Joe has slaughtered so many children? He's lost the moral high ground, and therefore he will lose all the wars, and the election, and then he will go to jail for war crimes. This is what happens when you turn into a war criminal. Calling war crimes "a war," calling a holocaust a "war" does not justify war crimes. Genocide Joe is going to jail, and he is going to kill a lot of people if he is not stopped.
Excellent but disturbing article. Thank you for the update regarding the North. The US needs to return one or two carrier attack groups to the Mediterranean. And needs to cease the arms embargo on Israel and stop slow walking other munitions. Sadly, the Biden administration is too weak. Because of Obama's fixation on the Iran nuke deal, Biden will never hit back at Iran or their so called proxies. After all these years the Dems still believe that appeasement will stop Iran's aggression. It won't. Iran needs to be punched in the face. Hopefully the Obama/Biden team will finally be gone by Nov and the GOP can reimpose sanctions on Iran and have Israel's back so Israel can destroy hezbollah
It pains me to read that people don't believe the United States will help defend Israel. I believe the American people are willing, but perhaps this administration won't. This current administration will certainly help defend against rockets, but it is unlikely they will deal with the prime cause of the assault on Israel--Iran.
Team Obama/Biden will never support action against Iran. Proof:
The houthis still control the Red Sea. A US embargo against certain weapons for Israel remain. After iran killed three American soldiers in Nov at Tower 22 in Jordan Biden gave Iran over a week notice that we would hit back, giving Iran time to remove its personnel and equipment. We need this team out of office.
What this means is that we now have a moral right and obligation to control all territory up to the farthest point which can hit a target on the northern border.
There are two problems with that
1. We do not yet have the stomach for it
2. We have too much leadership that lives in the past
The longer we attempt to solve this problem without actually solving it directly, ie doing backroom deals with foreign governments, obsessing over “image”, etc, the more clear it will become that those solutions simply will not work.
Eventually, everyone in Israel will realize that we will never be able to go back to Oct 6 thinking no matter how much we try or want to.
At that point each of us must make a decision. Stay or leave. It will be a raw, emotional decision. There will be no rationalizations, no double talk. Simply do I stay here and accept what must be accepted in order to stay, or leave and continue loving to enjoy my life.
On that day, both problem (1) and (2) will solve themselves
It's interesting that you frame the situation as Israel losing the North, when it seems that Israel lost it the moment it chose to withdraw civilians yet pursue the war in the south that it knew would prolong the suffering of the residents in the north.
Both sides are reacting to one another with the same narrow perspective of force and deterrence. Hezbollah was never deterred, and neither was Israel. What has been interpreted as deterrence, such as Hezbollah not joining in earlier rounds of fighting, wasn't deterrence so much as a lack of immediate interest or biding one's time. Let's not forget that Hezbollah "only" had about 12,000 rockets in 2006. Why does it have over 150,000 now? Because Hezbollah concluded that 12,000 wasn't enough to deter Israel.
I think it's helpful to look at the conflict from the perspective of complexity science as well as relationally. How each side behaves affects the system and creates an array of adjacent possibles, and we cannot predict which course of action the other side will choose, especially when we haven't shared their lived experiences and line of thinking -- just see how Netanyahu boasted in 2021 that the operation that year had deterred Israel's enemies for years to come, not having a clue that the only lesson Israel had taught Hamas was to find a different and crueler way of hurting us.
The longer Israel allows the violent phase of this conflict to carry on, the more Hezbollah learns about our weak spots, and the more tempted we are to expand the conflict, the closer we bring the system to chaos. Just check out the technology advances Ukraine has made against Russia using AI in drones. That technology is bound to seep into this conflict as well.
Israel may not have the luxury of trying to force Hezbollah to comply with 1701. Even restoring the status quo ante to Oct. 6 is illusory, given that many former residents won't return to the north.
Fighting a war on two fronts is how one loses. Also, you have not pointed out that we now know the Egyptians were working hand in glove with the Gazan Arabs, are supplying the Gazan Arabs with ammunition via the tunnels we havent found, and are providing cover to dig new tunnels.
This means if we must assume that jf we show any weakness we can expect a full invasion from Egypt. That means tanks and fighter jets backed by properly equipped infantry not just meth addicted psychotics on motor bikes.
Splitting our attention now would create that weakness. So. First our forces must smash Gaza into pieces. Then while keeping a reserve force in the south, our army will drive up the North, much like shoving a dagger through the soft underbelly of a terrorists stomach.
Yes they have plenty of missiles, that means our military must be absolutely focused on killing their way straight through to the launcher crews.
I don't believe that the U.S. has the will to really go to bat for Israel when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah and/or Iran.
As for the NY Times, it may as well just admit that it is an official PR arm of Hamas (and any other Israel-hating terrorist group).
Of course the U.S. won’t go against Iran, the country they are empowering. The stupidity of the U.S. right now is beyond belief.
What you asked us to imagine just a few months ago has come to pass in Northern Israel. With targeted, episodic military ops continuing in the West Bank, paralysis of Eilat as a port city, and the Gaza buffer zone creation, Israeli GDP and IDF are in challenging times. Perhaps, American readers may further contextualize Israel's economic and military challenges better using the map of New Jersey and the bordering States of Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware as context--FYI land mass and population of New Jersey are nearly identical to the State of Israel. Israel's circumstances are the equivalent of the State of New Jersey resigned to (1) the depopulation of Sussex, Morris, and Bergen Counties (if Hezbollah was situated in southern New York State), (2) the loss of Cape May county as a viable port and Salem nuclear reactor vulnerability to attack (if Houthi/Yemeni missiles and drones were being regularly launched from northern Delaware, (3) daily terrorist threats requiring Army/National Guard deployment into communities in Hudson, Passaic, and Essex Counties (if Palestinian Islamic Jihad was ensconced in Brooklyn and Staten Island), and (4) Mercer, Cumberland, and Salem Counties western borders now were a neutral zone (if Hamas was operating from Philadelphia). As a singular State, continued New Jersey GDP decline would presage existential territorial disintegration. In the presence of "a more perfect union", New Jersey has no enemy forces on (or proximal to) its northern, eastern, western, or southern borders and New Jersey remains economically viable . Perhaps Israel's IDF maintaining its conventional and nuclear weapons posture whilst also entering into a "less than perfect union" (with KSA, Persian Gulf States, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt) under a common US strategic defense umbrella could provide multiple options to contain/remove Iran (includes Lebanon, Syria, and south-central Iraq) and mitigate further Israeli military, civilian, and economic injuries. <hands in praying position>
All this is true. Also, there's a price to be paid for allowing rot to set in for two decades in Gaza and Lebanon. To be sure Israel grew tremendously in this time of relative quiet. However, her enemies grew as well and cleaning out two decades of rot will take time, blood and support.
I am very unhappy and even scared.
Great! You now have a perfect motivation to pour your heart out directly to God in conversation! This is actually why all of us are here, to develop a serious and deep connection with him. Its one of the most important things we can do.
Go for it soul!
the current President Biden seems enthralled with his leftist advisors like Blinken, Harris and maybe her Jewish husband.....and who knows who else....likewise the Dem party with Pelosi openly anti Israel and Schumer....a nothing. The UN? moving beyond the Litani....forget about anything on that score....Israel as a I just watched with Melanie Phillips interviewed by Brendan O Neil>>>> Israel is demeaned by BBC and NY Times....."tit for tat" in the North. Is it true that there is tourism in Lebanon? No displacement from the south of Lebanon? Or they are not permitted to flee the way the Israelis have been removed.....the drug use,, families dissolving ...that is a result of the war against Israel I'm not aware of.
Thank you for the clarity.
This message is not getting through to the main stream press in the United States.
Hezbollah is a bigger piece to bite than Hamas. The Israeli government and military are probably right to bring it to an end with Hamas before engaging seriously with Hezbollah in the north.
It is puzzling to see how Israel is working through different scenarios to bring the hostages home but keeps losing people in the North. Is it a complete lack of strategy or a paralysing fear of escalating the war with Hezbollah? I don’t get it. Hamas and Hezbollah will only negotiate if the outcomes are in their favor, never to benefit Israel. Isn’t now the time to put out a message that Israel is prepared to respond aggressively against Hezbollah and Iran, if necessary?
"Israel desperately wants to avoid all-out war". That statement in your article says it all. They are already in an all-our war. I think Netanyahu has outlived his usefulness. The way things are going, I can see where Israel ceases to exist. Who in their right mind would allow terrorist groups to depopulate a signifant portion of their country. This is exactly what's happening.
Talk of a ceasefire, is basically sealing Israel's fate. Hamas, Hezbollah see Israeli weakness. As far as America, under Biden? He's a joke. He Obama clan who controls the administration have it out for Israel and keep emboldening Iran. Why would they want to strenghten Iran that has pledged genocide.
As I've stated in a war, you go all out to win. It's unlikely that many hostages are left alived, and if they are, their lives are irreparably damaged by the Hamas subhumans.
It's looking to me that Israel has lost the war and terrorism has won.
Genocide Joe is going to lose, which means it's over for them. For example, Palestine means he loses in Russia as well. How can Genocide Joe call Putin a bully now that Genocide Joe has slaughtered so many children? He's lost the moral high ground, and therefore he will lose all the wars, and the election, and then he will go to jail for war crimes. This is what happens when you turn into a war criminal. Calling war crimes "a war," calling a holocaust a "war" does not justify war crimes. Genocide Joe is going to jail, and he is going to kill a lot of people if he is not stopped.
Excellent but disturbing article. Thank you for the update regarding the North. The US needs to return one or two carrier attack groups to the Mediterranean. And needs to cease the arms embargo on Israel and stop slow walking other munitions. Sadly, the Biden administration is too weak. Because of Obama's fixation on the Iran nuke deal, Biden will never hit back at Iran or their so called proxies. After all these years the Dems still believe that appeasement will stop Iran's aggression. It won't. Iran needs to be punched in the face. Hopefully the Obama/Biden team will finally be gone by Nov and the GOP can reimpose sanctions on Iran and have Israel's back so Israel can destroy hezbollah
It pains me to read that people don't believe the United States will help defend Israel. I believe the American people are willing, but perhaps this administration won't. This current administration will certainly help defend against rockets, but it is unlikely they will deal with the prime cause of the assault on Israel--Iran.
Team Obama/Biden will never support action against Iran. Proof:
The houthis still control the Red Sea. A US embargo against certain weapons for Israel remain. After iran killed three American soldiers in Nov at Tower 22 in Jordan Biden gave Iran over a week notice that we would hit back, giving Iran time to remove its personnel and equipment. We need this team out of office.
This is the worst ISR government ever!!!!
What this means is that we now have a moral right and obligation to control all territory up to the farthest point which can hit a target on the northern border.
There are two problems with that
1. We do not yet have the stomach for it
2. We have too much leadership that lives in the past
The longer we attempt to solve this problem without actually solving it directly, ie doing backroom deals with foreign governments, obsessing over “image”, etc, the more clear it will become that those solutions simply will not work.
Eventually, everyone in Israel will realize that we will never be able to go back to Oct 6 thinking no matter how much we try or want to.
At that point each of us must make a decision. Stay or leave. It will be a raw, emotional decision. There will be no rationalizations, no double talk. Simply do I stay here and accept what must be accepted in order to stay, or leave and continue loving to enjoy my life.
On that day, both problem (1) and (2) will solve themselves
It's interesting that you frame the situation as Israel losing the North, when it seems that Israel lost it the moment it chose to withdraw civilians yet pursue the war in the south that it knew would prolong the suffering of the residents in the north.
Both sides are reacting to one another with the same narrow perspective of force and deterrence. Hezbollah was never deterred, and neither was Israel. What has been interpreted as deterrence, such as Hezbollah not joining in earlier rounds of fighting, wasn't deterrence so much as a lack of immediate interest or biding one's time. Let's not forget that Hezbollah "only" had about 12,000 rockets in 2006. Why does it have over 150,000 now? Because Hezbollah concluded that 12,000 wasn't enough to deter Israel.
I think it's helpful to look at the conflict from the perspective of complexity science as well as relationally. How each side behaves affects the system and creates an array of adjacent possibles, and we cannot predict which course of action the other side will choose, especially when we haven't shared their lived experiences and line of thinking -- just see how Netanyahu boasted in 2021 that the operation that year had deterred Israel's enemies for years to come, not having a clue that the only lesson Israel had taught Hamas was to find a different and crueler way of hurting us.
The longer Israel allows the violent phase of this conflict to carry on, the more Hezbollah learns about our weak spots, and the more tempted we are to expand the conflict, the closer we bring the system to chaos. Just check out the technology advances Ukraine has made against Russia using AI in drones. That technology is bound to seep into this conflict as well.
Israel may not have the luxury of trying to force Hezbollah to comply with 1701. Even restoring the status quo ante to Oct. 6 is illusory, given that many former residents won't return to the north.
Fighting a war on two fronts is how one loses. Also, you have not pointed out that we now know the Egyptians were working hand in glove with the Gazan Arabs, are supplying the Gazan Arabs with ammunition via the tunnels we havent found, and are providing cover to dig new tunnels.
This means if we must assume that jf we show any weakness we can expect a full invasion from Egypt. That means tanks and fighter jets backed by properly equipped infantry not just meth addicted psychotics on motor bikes.
Splitting our attention now would create that weakness. So. First our forces must smash Gaza into pieces. Then while keeping a reserve force in the south, our army will drive up the North, much like shoving a dagger through the soft underbelly of a terrorists stomach.
Yes they have plenty of missiles, that means our military must be absolutely focused on killing their way straight through to the launcher crews.
I pray not !