I find intellectuals may be capable of even greater folly than those they look down upon. I believe we need far more people in positions of decision-making relying on their real world experience at least as much as their academic credentials. Just another of the many crises dropped straight from the ivory tower that is tearing America apart. But especially in the arena of foreign policy and conflict, the consequences of these disastrous failures are drawn in blood.
There is a lot of talk here about "American policy failure" but nothing about Arab and Iranian failures to create stable governments, invest in their citizens welfare, and to become economically competitive in the 21st. century. Everybody keeps harping on a "Palestinian state." Israel had a functioning state and capable military from day one in 1948. But after 76 years the local Arabs have not been able to form a viable government that doesn't soon morph into a terrorist group.
"PLO leader Yasser Arafat was once asked how the Palestinian problem had come into being. ‘The Arabs betrayed us,’ he said. The Palestinians can’t understand how 20 Arab countries and hundreds of millions of people aren’t able to restore their rights. It gives them no rest and fuels their rage and extremism." https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
So here we are today with Israel vowing to destroy Hamas, a bonafide terrorist group, but there is no Arab government capable of replacing Hamas and not following the same path to extremism and violence. If the regional Arabs want a state, then they have to quit fighting amongst themselves and to take the initiative of forming one. Israel has better and more productive things to do than to constantly police the rise of Islamists in the region.
Academics are not politicians nor statesmen. Blaming the rise of radical Islam on clueless academics and American Presidents is absurd and intellectually lazy. There were a lot of moving parts in the region after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following WWI and do-it-yourself nation building following WWII. There were numerous mistakes made, but the whole world was recovering from the devastation of two World Wars and an active Cold War.
There is a phrase from the Quran : "Indeed Allah does not change the people's lot until they change what is within their souls." It is time to quit blaming Westerners, academics, and Israelis for the current mess the Palestinians have created for themselves. The catastrophe, the Nekba, was not the will of Allah, but the foolishness of those who were tasked with building a viable Arab state to share the region with Israel.
First of all, it was the UN not "God" who established a Jewish state. Getting gods involved only increases the bloodshed.
Yes, in 1948 Israel in accord with the UN resolution declaring a dual citizenship of the region did declare itself a state. It was immediately attacked by various Arab states for a variety of reasons. My point is after 78 years the local Arabs have not been able to establish their own state and are more interested in wasting their efforts on terrorism and antisemitism rather than diplomacy and statehood.
As I mentioned in my post, neighboring Arab states recognize that "Palestinians" bring radical Islam with them and they are barred from Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. Palestinians had a large role in developing radical Islam merging European fascism with orthodox Islam after WWII. "Palestine" is a non-state and a pariah in the region for lots of reasons. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
Israel has morphed into a multinational, multicultural modern state and has outgrown its original mandate as a home for disenfranchised Jews. What I see that Israel needs to concentrate on is how to end its Zionist initial mandate and declare itself a secular state as most modern countries now have. Palestinian inbred antisemitism makes this difficult and fellow theocracy Iran takes advantage of this Sunni radical Islam to strike back at both Israel and Sunni Arab states in the region.
Notice who was assisting Israel during Iran's recent missile attack. Other Arab nations in the region are cracking down on radical Islam and progressing toward becoming progressive modern states. Yes, that is precisely what was expected, but it has taken more than 75 years to get there.
I fully agree with you. Everything was predictable. We went in with our eyes wide open and we’ve suffered the consequences as expected. We didn’t have to lobby the UN to establish a Jewish State in Palestine. We didn’t have to accept the UN resolution to establish our state. But if we chose to do so knowing the consequences why are we seeking to blame others for our own choices?
My only point about God is that if the Messianic Zionists claim to be acting in God’s name despite the absence of prophecy, they should stop taking disgraceful actions that only desecrate His name.
Israel currently has two enemies - ultra orthodox Jews and ultra orthodox Islamists. Both claim to be acting in God's name. I am reminded of Voltaire's observation: "God created humankind in his image and we returned the favor."
Most modern states are secular and separate church from state. Israel is a democratic theocracy and rival Iran is an autocratic one. Either nation is out of step with the modern world and has become dangerous outliers in a world of increasing multicultural globalization. We can all agree that Israel needs a new government, but it also needs a new nation jettisoning the original Zionist raison d'être necessary following in the turmoil following WWII but irrelevant in the 21st century.
This is a defining moment for Israel to reinvent itself and to stop coddling the ultra Orthodox Jews at the detriment of the rest of the population. I agree with Senator Chuck Schumer who clarifies the path forward for Israel: "The Democratic majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, acknowledged this divide in a speech on Israel on the Senate floor last week. He reiterated his longstanding commitment to the Jewish state, though not its prime minister. But he also conceded, in the speech’s most remarkable line, that he “can understand the idealism that inspires so many young people in particular to support a one-state solution” — a solution that does not involve a Jewish state.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/opinion/israel-american-jews-zionism.html?smid=em-share
Very interesting thesis; thank you. As for, "I witnessed the impact of fantasy on America’s Middle East policies," might be interesting to read your analysis of the impact of "fantasy" on Israel's Middle East policies. Where should we begin? Perhaps Shalom Hagalil War and the fantasy of installing a pro-Israel Christian Phalangist led government in Lebanon?
Your main point is obvious but could you clarify what you are stating about US fantasies and the UN ?
"When, in February 2011, the U.S. prepared to veto a Security Council resolution condemning Israel’s West Bank settlements, the administration [WHAT ADMINISTRATION? The Admin of the US President? ] assured me “with 100 percent certainty” that U.S. embassies around the region would be sacked in revenge."
Sacked, plundered by whom? Middle Eastern states? What is your point of view of the West Bank settlements? I do not, and most readers here will not know one area of settlement from another. Nor can we see from your writing what is your point of view regarding the settlements which the general public in the U.S., if they think about Israel to any degree, probably understands as being a major problem in the conflict with Israel's neighbors.
You write,
"Similar prognostications preceded Washington’s recognition Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem in December 2017, when State Department officials assured me that the move would ignite anti-American riots from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. And, again, nothing happened."
I think you are making assumptions about our background knowledge and maybe you are also assuming that readers who want to support Israel understand and agree with your point of view on settlements, which goes unstated by you.
The topic here had nothing to do with the Ambassador’s views on settlements, but I will take an overall view of them. First, they are not an “impediment” to peace as a general matter. They cover a tiny fraction of the area. Their containment was conspicuously left out of the Oslo Accords, suggesting that Arafat did not perceive them as such - and for good reason since his strategic goal (and the continuing goal of the PA as currently constituted) was the destruction of Israel, reducing the issue of settlements to irrelevancy. And, finally, for those interested in the much abused concept of international law there is always the point to be made that the rights of the Jewish people to immigrate to and closely settle within what was, until its termination in May 1948, the lands of the Mandate of Palestine survives as a matter of law and, for reasons that should be obvious, were unaffected by the illegal occupation of a portion of that territory by Jordan and Egypt between 1948-67. Had the Arabs agreed to the UN suggested partition, the legal landscape would have been different as the Jews would have voluntarily conceded their rights to that extent. But the Arabs rejected the compromise on offer and so the rights afforded the Jewish people remained whole and intact under the provisions of the UN Charter’s Article 80.
The concept of “Occupied Palestinian Territories” should therefore be seen for what it is, a political talking point and not a legal statement of Arab rights. And, notwithstanding Israel’s legal rights flowing from the international consensus of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922, any resolution of the conflict will be political and not legal. In that context, the settlements will be part of the agreement that finally ends the conflict - whenever that may occur. It is ultimately up to the Palestinians to decide if they wish to live in a state devoid of Jews next to a Jewish state with a 20% Arab population. How they decide this issue will be an indication of how they see their future and what the borders of their state will be.
"the greatest single achievement of American diplomacy in the Middle East since 1979, the Abraham Accords, was accomplished without input from the region’s scholars. ...Relations between Arab states and Israel could never be normalized prior to concluding the two-state solution. The agreements Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in 2020 totally upended this assumption"
So well said! It's impossible to overstate the success of President Trump's Middle East diplomacy after 30+ years of failed "two-state solutions" that never bothered to examine, one move ahead, what sort of state the Palestinian one could realistically become.
As you know, in 1980 Israel annexed East Jerusalem and declared the unified city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Are you suggesting that the United States officially recognized Israel’s sovereignty over this unified city of Jerusalem in December 2017?
If so, President Trump expressly contradicted that statement in December 2020 when he stated: “We are not taking any position on any final status issues including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. These questions are up to the parties involved.”
I find intellectuals may be capable of even greater folly than those they look down upon. I believe we need far more people in positions of decision-making relying on their real world experience at least as much as their academic credentials. Just another of the many crises dropped straight from the ivory tower that is tearing America apart. But especially in the arena of foreign policy and conflict, the consequences of these disastrous failures are drawn in blood.
"It takes two to tango..."
There is a lot of talk here about "American policy failure" but nothing about Arab and Iranian failures to create stable governments, invest in their citizens welfare, and to become economically competitive in the 21st. century. Everybody keeps harping on a "Palestinian state." Israel had a functioning state and capable military from day one in 1948. But after 76 years the local Arabs have not been able to form a viable government that doesn't soon morph into a terrorist group.
"PLO leader Yasser Arafat was once asked how the Palestinian problem had come into being. ‘The Arabs betrayed us,’ he said. The Palestinians can’t understand how 20 Arab countries and hundreds of millions of people aren’t able to restore their rights. It gives them no rest and fuels their rage and extremism." https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
So here we are today with Israel vowing to destroy Hamas, a bonafide terrorist group, but there is no Arab government capable of replacing Hamas and not following the same path to extremism and violence. If the regional Arabs want a state, then they have to quit fighting amongst themselves and to take the initiative of forming one. Israel has better and more productive things to do than to constantly police the rise of Islamists in the region.
Academics are not politicians nor statesmen. Blaming the rise of radical Islam on clueless academics and American Presidents is absurd and intellectually lazy. There were a lot of moving parts in the region after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following WWI and do-it-yourself nation building following WWII. There were numerous mistakes made, but the whole world was recovering from the devastation of two World Wars and an active Cold War.
There is a phrase from the Quran : "Indeed Allah does not change the people's lot until they change what is within their souls." It is time to quit blaming Westerners, academics, and Israelis for the current mess the Palestinians have created for themselves. The catastrophe, the Nekba, was not the will of Allah, but the foolishness of those who were tasked with building a viable Arab state to share the region with Israel.
John
What do you mean by “Israel has better and more productive things to do than to constantly police the rise of Islamists in the region”?
Doesn’t Israel’s very survival depend on detecting and preventing threats in this very region where it chose to establish its Jewish State in 1948?
Why is anyone surprised by the endless cycle of violence and terror tragically engulfing the region since the fall of the Ottoman Empire?
Wasn’t this very outcome clearly foreseen and articulated by Jabotinsky, Achad Ha’Am and Bris Shalom from the early 1920s?
Why are we scapegoating Western antisemitism, the Palestinians and/or the other Arab nations in the region for acting precisely as we expected?
If God wanted us to establish the Jewish State despite this foreseeable future, shouldn’t we defend ourselves in accordance with His will?
First of all, it was the UN not "God" who established a Jewish state. Getting gods involved only increases the bloodshed.
Yes, in 1948 Israel in accord with the UN resolution declaring a dual citizenship of the region did declare itself a state. It was immediately attacked by various Arab states for a variety of reasons. My point is after 78 years the local Arabs have not been able to establish their own state and are more interested in wasting their efforts on terrorism and antisemitism rather than diplomacy and statehood.
As I mentioned in my post, neighboring Arab states recognize that "Palestinians" bring radical Islam with them and they are barred from Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. Palestinians had a large role in developing radical Islam merging European fascism with orthodox Islam after WWII. "Palestine" is a non-state and a pariah in the region for lots of reasons. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
Israel has morphed into a multinational, multicultural modern state and has outgrown its original mandate as a home for disenfranchised Jews. What I see that Israel needs to concentrate on is how to end its Zionist initial mandate and declare itself a secular state as most modern countries now have. Palestinian inbred antisemitism makes this difficult and fellow theocracy Iran takes advantage of this Sunni radical Islam to strike back at both Israel and Sunni Arab states in the region.
Notice who was assisting Israel during Iran's recent missile attack. Other Arab nations in the region are cracking down on radical Islam and progressing toward becoming progressive modern states. Yes, that is precisely what was expected, but it has taken more than 75 years to get there.
I fully agree with you. Everything was predictable. We went in with our eyes wide open and we’ve suffered the consequences as expected. We didn’t have to lobby the UN to establish a Jewish State in Palestine. We didn’t have to accept the UN resolution to establish our state. But if we chose to do so knowing the consequences why are we seeking to blame others for our own choices?
My only point about God is that if the Messianic Zionists claim to be acting in God’s name despite the absence of prophecy, they should stop taking disgraceful actions that only desecrate His name.
Israel currently has two enemies - ultra orthodox Jews and ultra orthodox Islamists. Both claim to be acting in God's name. I am reminded of Voltaire's observation: "God created humankind in his image and we returned the favor."
Most modern states are secular and separate church from state. Israel is a democratic theocracy and rival Iran is an autocratic one. Either nation is out of step with the modern world and has become dangerous outliers in a world of increasing multicultural globalization. We can all agree that Israel needs a new government, but it also needs a new nation jettisoning the original Zionist raison d'être necessary following in the turmoil following WWII but irrelevant in the 21st century.
This is a defining moment for Israel to reinvent itself and to stop coddling the ultra Orthodox Jews at the detriment of the rest of the population. I agree with Senator Chuck Schumer who clarifies the path forward for Israel: "The Democratic majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, acknowledged this divide in a speech on Israel on the Senate floor last week. He reiterated his longstanding commitment to the Jewish state, though not its prime minister. But he also conceded, in the speech’s most remarkable line, that he “can understand the idealism that inspires so many young people in particular to support a one-state solution” — a solution that does not involve a Jewish state.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/opinion/israel-american-jews-zionism.html?smid=em-share
Very insightful. Thanks Mr. Oren- I'd like to say a real expert on this subject, but this word is a pejorative now.
Very interesting thesis; thank you. As for, "I witnessed the impact of fantasy on America’s Middle East policies," might be interesting to read your analysis of the impact of "fantasy" on Israel's Middle East policies. Where should we begin? Perhaps Shalom Hagalil War and the fantasy of installing a pro-Israel Christian Phalangist led government in Lebanon?
Your main point is obvious but could you clarify what you are stating about US fantasies and the UN ?
"When, in February 2011, the U.S. prepared to veto a Security Council resolution condemning Israel’s West Bank settlements, the administration [WHAT ADMINISTRATION? The Admin of the US President? ] assured me “with 100 percent certainty” that U.S. embassies around the region would be sacked in revenge."
Sacked, plundered by whom? Middle Eastern states? What is your point of view of the West Bank settlements? I do not, and most readers here will not know one area of settlement from another. Nor can we see from your writing what is your point of view regarding the settlements which the general public in the U.S., if they think about Israel to any degree, probably understands as being a major problem in the conflict with Israel's neighbors.
You write,
"Similar prognostications preceded Washington’s recognition Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem in December 2017, when State Department officials assured me that the move would ignite anti-American riots from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. And, again, nothing happened."
I think you are making assumptions about our background knowledge and maybe you are also assuming that readers who want to support Israel understand and agree with your point of view on settlements, which goes unstated by you.
The topic here had nothing to do with the Ambassador’s views on settlements, but I will take an overall view of them. First, they are not an “impediment” to peace as a general matter. They cover a tiny fraction of the area. Their containment was conspicuously left out of the Oslo Accords, suggesting that Arafat did not perceive them as such - and for good reason since his strategic goal (and the continuing goal of the PA as currently constituted) was the destruction of Israel, reducing the issue of settlements to irrelevancy. And, finally, for those interested in the much abused concept of international law there is always the point to be made that the rights of the Jewish people to immigrate to and closely settle within what was, until its termination in May 1948, the lands of the Mandate of Palestine survives as a matter of law and, for reasons that should be obvious, were unaffected by the illegal occupation of a portion of that territory by Jordan and Egypt between 1948-67. Had the Arabs agreed to the UN suggested partition, the legal landscape would have been different as the Jews would have voluntarily conceded their rights to that extent. But the Arabs rejected the compromise on offer and so the rights afforded the Jewish people remained whole and intact under the provisions of the UN Charter’s Article 80.
The concept of “Occupied Palestinian Territories” should therefore be seen for what it is, a political talking point and not a legal statement of Arab rights. And, notwithstanding Israel’s legal rights flowing from the international consensus of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922, any resolution of the conflict will be political and not legal. In that context, the settlements will be part of the agreement that finally ends the conflict - whenever that may occur. It is ultimately up to the Palestinians to decide if they wish to live in a state devoid of Jews next to a Jewish state with a 20% Arab population. How they decide this issue will be an indication of how they see their future and what the borders of their state will be.
The Arab "street".
"the greatest single achievement of American diplomacy in the Middle East since 1979, the Abraham Accords, was accomplished without input from the region’s scholars. ...Relations between Arab states and Israel could never be normalized prior to concluding the two-state solution. The agreements Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in 2020 totally upended this assumption"
So well said! It's impossible to overstate the success of President Trump's Middle East diplomacy after 30+ years of failed "two-state solutions" that never bothered to examine, one move ahead, what sort of state the Palestinian one could realistically become.
Michael Oren
As you know, in 1980 Israel annexed East Jerusalem and declared the unified city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Are you suggesting that the United States officially recognized Israel’s sovereignty over this unified city of Jerusalem in December 2017?
If so, President Trump expressly contradicted that statement in December 2020 when he stated: “We are not taking any position on any final status issues including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. These questions are up to the parties involved.”