Yes, people who want to live in peace and security, with hope for their Children's future have infiltrated all western Democracies. The result of Gouvernments who deny them that.
Not so! Hamas, Palestinian Authority, etc.. are so corrupt, all the trillions of dollars pouring to them ends in the hands of a handful, with the majority left with nothing. And so, never ending indoctrination of hate inflates the psyches of masses to keep them in a continuous state of misery and false hope. Imagine the opposite, where all the trillions were wisely used to build a prosperous and functioning society, where Gaza on the Mediterranean could be a tourist attraction, etc.. etc.. But, their psyche is not up to the challenge, they are basically still a tribe running with the camels in the desert!!
About their psyche : nothing to do with a tribe running camels in the desert !
Never underestimate an enemy who's evil but effective strategy has been studied and prepared for years, with hate indoctrination of generations of innocent children based on pure evil.
After studying the Israeli culture & politics for years while in prison, while practicing torture and murder on fellow Palestinian prisoners suspected of sympathizing or working with Israël, the Hamas leaders have planned their strategies, which goes further then developing a huge network of sophisticated underground tunnels with high tech facilities and weapon manufacturing factories.
Generations are raised from early childhood to hate and annihilate Israël by killing jews and infidels. They are taught narratives : Israel does not exist on their maps and in their school books. For them Israël is the oppressor that needs to be annihilated by all means.
De-radicalizing this brainwashed population fed on an ideology based on narratives and taught to hate and kill is a huge challenge, which can hopefully be reached by teaching the children in a constructive manner, and finding Palestinians who reject Hamas for their ideology and still believe in peace to realize this challenge.
And most important do not underestimate the role of the Iranian government who's been planning and financing this war for years to reach their own goals, nuclear power and seemingly installing worldwide islamic caliphates.
"people who want to live in peace and security, with hope for their Children's future"
That would exclude all the inhabitants of the 21 sovereign Arab countries today, each and everyone of them a despotic, deeply corrupt and violent society.
Other than natural resources, they have no economic prospects, except for Morocco which has started an aerospace subcontracted industry.
The same societies they come from are what they're trying to replace the West with.
I assume you’re a Trump supporter. Just need to add the words “vermin” and you can join the Third Reich!!!
How many of these people have you actually met and gotten to know? I’ve worked closely for 20 years with Moderate Religious Muslims who were raised in these very countries.
Fortunately they don’t assume that all Jews are like Bernie Madoff or Baruch Goldstein. In fact their worldview is far more closely aligned with Moderate Religious Zionists like me then with racist extremists (whether Arab, Israeli, MAGA or Ivy League liberals).
I am quite comfortable with statistics and the central limit theorem, which show just over 3 out of 4 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza approve of the October 7 atrocities:
I remember that Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, acknowledged the Golan Heights as part of Israel, used American diplomacy to push through the Abraham Accords with the UAE and issued an executive order making anti-Semitism a Title VI Civil Rights violation in universities. I was not aware these were also policies of the Third Reich.
Agree to disagree on what, exactly? That these are significant and forward looking steps or that the majority of Palestinians approve of Hamas actions? Both are facts.
I wonder if it would be at all possible to have honest conversations about the fact that there should be no Palestinian state because there is no precursors to create and sustain one? Can the Palestinians leave Gaza and start a new life elsewhere? Negotiations should focus on creating a Palestinian enclave within Jordan, for example, similar to Kurdistan within Iraq, with no ties to Israel, as a start? I am puzzled at how Palestinians are treated by the international community, including foreign governments when in reality half of the world population had to flee their ancestral homes due to wars, disasters, terror, tribal infighting, and didn’t demand the right of return. Palestinians should not be granted an exemption of forever refugees. They need to create an entirely new narrative that is not linked to Jew hatred and death, and that might take many generations. This revitalisation should not become Israel’s problem any more.
It was rejected by Israel and would probably have been rejected by Jordan had Israel not responded so quickly.
Jordan's ruling family is already threatened by the majority Palestinian population without bringing in a West Bank component. They can also see the example of Kurdistan: endless revolts against the central governments in Iran, Iraq and Turkey.
I don’t remember in detail why Israel rejected the Reagan plan, perhaps the issue of Jerusalem was not handled properly?
I am aware that Jordan doesn’t want Palestinians nor does anyone else. An independent Palestinian state isn’t possible either, given its threat to Israel’s security. Which brings a question - why invest in rebuilding Gaza and “revitalise” its population, which clearly isn’t plausible, given that UNRWA will certainly have to be dismantled and the entire “refugee” status of Palestinians has to go.
That’s a cool and reasonable thought. The world is not ready for it and will not be ready until another Holocaust happens. The world is on fire with pro-Palestinian passion and rage and hatred for Israel and Jews.
The biggest threat to Israel is the Muslim Brotherhood Nazi supporters in US and EU. Michael Oren probably realized how corrupted the US has become by Islamists during his tenure but could never fully articulate and risk alienating himself.
Israel can handle jihadists on the battlefield. I don't know if they can overcome jihadists in the State Department, EU, UN, etc. There is a concerted effort to fuck Israel no matter the cost. They hate Jews and they want them dead.
Israel is a tiny country very dependent on foreign exports and global acceptance. It wouldn't survive Russia-style sanctions which the US could manufacture consent for in the media it controls.
I don't think Israelis full realize the level of hostility many in the West have for Jews. The only Jews they like are ones who lick their ass.
Countering that is the tremendous support for Israel among the Christian Evangelical community. The largest pro- Israel organization in the world is Christians United for Israel (https://cufi.org ).
Much of the hatred for Israel is hatred for the West by left-wingers opposed to the values of the Enlightenment: tolerance, rationality, merit, individual liberty. This is not 1930s Germany, where the entire nation hates the Jews and loves everyone else.
Israel and Jews in the Diaspora need to recognize the difference and join hands with all potential allies. There are many non-Jewish allies and some Jewish groups that are enemies, like J-Street and Jewish Voice for Peace.
A majority of Americans support additional military aid to Ukraine. So does the White House and a majority of both houses of Congress. So why the delay? Because a handful of MAGA extremist can block a vote in the House.
Do you really think the same can’t happen to Israel (I.e.,, that the House can’t flip into the hands of a small group of progressive extremists)? Biden being forced to step aside at the upcoming Democratic Presidential Convention may be Israel’s greatest existential threat.
Even if the House flips, there is still significant support for Israel among centrist Democrats, as seen in the latest, and very exciting, Harvard-Harris poll
This is not 1948: Israel's defense industries have grown to world scale. UK exports about $150M a year of defense equipment to Israel but imports much more, including armor plate for the critical Type 26 frigate.
Agree that a cut off of military aid to Israel would be vigorously opposed by a vast majority of Americans (including a vast majority of house members from both parties), far more so than with Ukraine.
But will bipartisan outrage deter or embolden disrupters like Matt Gaetz (on the far right) or AOC (on the far left)?.
If a handful of MAGA extremists can shut down the current GOP controlled house why wouldn’t the Squad return the favor in the next Democratic controlled one?
Even if the odds are low, isn’t the downside potentially existential (for example, if the house is blocked from approving Israel’s rearmament following a surprise escalation from Hezbollah (perhaps joined by other Iranian proxies))?
Or if such rearmament is conditioned on an unconditional cease fire in Gaza? Or UN membership of a Palestinian State in accordance with UN resolution 242? Or recognition of a single democratic state from river to sea with equal rights to all residents?
As a child of survivors (whose family on both sides perished in Auschwitz) its probably in my DNA to worry about low probability existential threats.
Israel's rearmament is primarily from Israel: Merkava tanks, Namer and Eitan armored vehicles, Spike antitank missiles, Hermes and Heron UAVs, ATMOS self-propelled artillery, SeaBreaker cruise missiles, SPICE glider bombs with machine vision guidance, RAMPAGE air launched ballistic missiles. (enjoyable time googling these!)
About half of US defense aid in recent years consisted of jet fuel. Only aircraft and helicopters are from the US and I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future Apache attack helicopters will be supplemented or replaced by this beauty
[1/3 of all F-35 Strike Fighters have their wings manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. All the F-35 heads-up helmet displays come from Elbit.]
Much of the recent emergency shipments were for low tech items like dumb bombs (to be fitted with SPICE guidance kits in Israel), explosives and ammunition. Israel defense firms had offshored this production in favor of higher tech, higher value items and are now restoring production in Israel.
Happy to hear that, unlike 1948, Israel’s rearmament is “primarily” from Israel. But being 70% or 80% self sufficient may not be enough if Israel is being bombarded simultaneously by Hezballah, the Houthis and Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria (which would happen in a heartbeat if the US cuts off military aid to Israel)
Feels like a re-run from the fall of 1973. You sound like Moshe Dayan in late September while I sound like Golda Mayer begging America for arms just a few days later.
You may be right — this is not 1948 nor 1973. But that’s what they said on October 6th.
We hear the same rhetoric on demographics — I.e., a Jewish majority is not at risk even if Israel annexes the entire West Bank and Gaza and grants equal voting rights to all residents West of the Jordan River. Everyone says it but no one is willing to agree to it. In other words, a bare majority is not sufficient. When it comes to existential risks, a “margin of error” is essential.
I hope your optimism is never put to the test in practice
I agree. Israel without friends is one massive ghetto. I know I am being very negative but I very much fear for the third destruction of the temple . This time by the jihadi nazis of the West once they have taken over the West and its arsenal through ‘democratic’ means. Too horrific to contemplate.
Firepower annihilated the islamists in Algeria following the 1991 election they won, the Shining Path guerrillas in Peru in the 1990s and the Marxist guerrillas in Argentina and Uruguay in the 1970s.
The hard-hitting methods used in those cases can be subcontracted to an appropriate proxy in post war Gaza, where they will be more effective because of the confined territory.
Palestinian polling shows more the 3/4 of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza explicitly support the Oct 7 atrocities. No amount of education or peace offerings is going to overcome that. Fortunately the peace Israel needs is with the Gulf states and Egypt. Encouraging to see Nir Barkat openly shake hands and chat with the Saudi Commerce Minister at the WTO meeting in Doha this week.
Mohammed Dahlan, former Gaza strongman and now longtime advisor to UAE, has suggested that role, possibly for himself, with the help of a multinational Arab force.
Firepower would be the same repression used effectively in the Arab world and South America to put down guerilla movements.
That might also require a serious reworking of Iran’s control of its multiple proxies in the region, and it is not clear to me how the current administration might handle it.
For there to be any chance of neutralizing Hamas’ message, a fundamental shift has to take place within Islam itself. Perhaps something akin to the Hewish conception that the Messiah will come in God’s good time, that there is nothing humans can do to advance the divine timetable and its heresy to pretend otherwise. That alone would be a major step but, in the end, this is an intra-Muslim argument. From the outside, only continued pressure on Hamas - whose goal is to show it as the “weak horse” - can push things in a better direction.
As a majority of Israelis have concluded, since at least the second intifada, the future is one of separating from the Palestinians, there are but two options: a state for them or their expulsion. Israel (being better than, say, the Europeans) will not take the second approach - though Palestinians might be asked their opinion on the subject of leaving for greener pastures with the possibility of returning when things are calmer.
So a “two states for two peoples” seems the only future. What that state will look like internally, who governs, what is taught, what its borders will be are all up for discussion. And Israel cannot exclude itself from those discussions.
There seems no reason to broach the subject publicly while the war goes on, let alone suggest their maximal territorial demands if the 2002 Saudi Plan remain available. It would be seen by all as a monumental reward for Hamas’ barbaric butchery - which, in turn, would only make destroying it as an “idea” that much more difficult and leave all Israel at risk if further attack.
If anything, the Palestinians must recognize that they have been defeated in battle, that Hamas is the reason the new offer for peace is less than it might have been before October 7 and that violence will not advance their cause.
"A future de-militarized Palestinian State" is pure fantasy. Look how effective the "blockade" on Gaza was in keeping mostly Iranian armaments out. Foreign aid money not used to build their terror infrastructure underground was used to pay Egypt to look the other way when arms were smuggled in. The other mistake everyone in this thread, including Michael Oren, makes is accepting the existence of a distinct Palestinian people. It is a fiction imposed on the world by Arafat and his PLO PR machine about 60 years ago. They are simply Arabs living in Gaza and elsewhere culturally, ethnically, and religiously indistinct from Arabs in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, etc. It's time to change the narrative and not spread false hope for this pitiful group of people who have been left to languish living off UN and other foreign support for 75+ years while their "leaders" amass billions in wealth.
Today everything is pure fantasy (other than continuing to condemn future generations of Jewish and Arab children, grandchildren and great grandchildren to yet another 75 year cycle of violence).
But the same can be said — and in fact was said by Jabotinsky — more than 100 years ago And by Moshe Dayan more than 70 years ago. How did they expect this pure fantasy (nightmare) to end?
My guess is that they fantasized about the day when saving our respective children and grandchildren begins to outweighs avenging the wrongful deaths of our respective parents and grandparents.
If that day ever comes — when moderates on both sides can silence their respective extremists— maybe then we can try to reach an accommodation where Palestinians gain self determination and Israelis gain security — for example a de-militarized Palestinian State under IDF security supervision (in terms of border crossings and internal terror threats).
Do you think Jabotinsky or Dayan had a more realistic plan?
The question is - how to do that? Everyone is obsessed with the “genocide” of the Palestinians who, unlike any other group, are not allowed to leave Gaza. So what to do?
Patience is a virtue (think President Herzog). Incitement is a curse (think Hamas, Ben Gvir, etc). A period of healing is needed after the intentional slaughter of Jews on October 7th as well as the unintended collateral damage to innocent women and children in Gaza). Expect extremists to disrupt the healing process whenever possible
How do you propose to “deradicalize its population”? Until now, everything failed at this goal. As devoted Muslims, won’t they always strive to eradicate Israel as Quran calls for?
Messianic extremists on both sides will never accept a two state solution on holy land promised only to them. Compromise in God’s name is acceptable only to Moderate Religious Zionists and Muslims.
I’ve had the privilege of working closely with Moderate Religious Muslims for more than 20 years. Their worldview is far more aligned with Moderate Religious Zionists (like me) then either one of us is our respective messianic brethren
Thank you for sharing your experience. Frankly, I didn't think they existed because they are completely invisible in that version of reality we have access to. What we mostly see is extremism on both sides. Especially on the Islamic side.
I can reread but what are these "bold steps." What does "federated"mean...with whom or what other entity or state. I see prevailing "wisdom" on MSNBC's Morning Joe where the eponymous host rails against Netanyahu's obstinacy....according to the numbers often cited there are no dead hamas fighters, only the babies buried under rubble. As always its Israel's disproportionate response.....ONLY 1,200 vs 30K innocent Gazans. So how does Israel pursue this war to eradicate hamas as military and remove battalions miles from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem? And insure that these battalions never return with UN collusion as in Lebanon. A change will have to come in Palestinian society....peace with Israel not instead of Israel.
Neither Nazism ceased to exist after the defeat of Nazi Germany, nor communism after the collapse of the USSR. Al Qaeda has not ceased to exist and ISIS has not ceased to exist. Like any extremist group after its defeat.
Two factors are important to ensure that parasites cannot harm the host (that’s me in the biological sense). Removing parasites from the host's body and preventing the parasites from causing harm.
In order for Hamas to not be able to harm either Israel or others, it is necessary to inflict a crushing military defeat on it, and then create conditions under which Arab communities that want to live in peace and create a peaceful economy, infrastructure and enjoy their fruits will not allow Hamas to return.
Israel can do the former. He cannot and should not do the second. It can only help.
Thank you, very interesting, well written article. I choose not to hate, I find it destructive. Is it an energy that can be harnessed to achieve a goal (protection)
Maybe. In terms of revenge I think it destroys the individual harboring that hatred. I certainly admit that there exist situations where avoiding hatred is extremely difficult. Making our World a better place for all Humans requires new thinking, leaps of Faith and Trust.
This is a sober analysis of the situation with Hamas. Reminds us that a fighting force is not the sole carrier of a backward-looking vision and goal. Glad to hear that some progress has been made both in Britain and in Saudi Arabia on providing some re-education for the Palestinian youth so that they will realize that wiping out Israel and bringing back the caliphate are not the solution.
Michael, I'm sure you've seen the "educational" materials used in Hamas and UNRWA schools in Gaza and West Bank (really Judea and Samaria). Arab children are taught to hate Jews and that Israel will be destroyed from the earliest age. What's the adage - people's attitudes are formed by kindergarten? There will be no real peace with these people until there are 2 generations growing up learning that peace and co-existence with Jews and Israel is not only possible, but desirable. The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan were political and military decisions and have been enforced because citizens of those countries (like virtually all Arab countries) have no say. Ask Israeli tourists how safe and comfortable they feel when visiting there?
The other mistake being made is accepting the existence of a distinct Palestinian people. It is a fiction imposed on the world by Arafat and his PLO PR machine about 60 years ago. They are simply Arabs living in Gaza and elsewhere, culturally, ethnically, and religiously indistinct from Arabs in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, etc. It's time to change the narrative and not spread false hope for this pitiful group of people who have been left to languish living off UN and other foreign support for 75+ years while their "leaders" amass billions in wealth. If other Arab nations and the world really cared about these people, they would take them in like refugees from every other conflict in the world have been treated, unless they are Jews, of course.
The loudest echo in the world right now comes from cowards. Israel has been given yet another ridiculous load to carry : that of its own "day after" (that no one seems to mention), the "day after" the "home land" of the weasels has been eradicated, the "day after" the psychological violence has invaded the inner home of the Jewish psyche, the "day after" the US has meddled in the affairs of the middle east, the "day after" the antisemitic hateful mobs in Europe have done their damage... I can go on of course. The level of narcissism in the world at large demonstrated by a refusal for self responsibility is outstandingly high. If Israel feels any guilt regarding their necessary actions for self defense, they must stop. The only reason idiots dump their shit on others, is because they know they can manipulate their guilt- ridden confidence/conscience. Jews everywhere must own their power regardless of what anyone else thinks of them. We will keep rising above all the injustice and hate, but there must also be radical inner change of this Jewish guilt. It's the "special child/chosen one" syndrome, the "survivor" syndrome, the "outcast" syndrome. All these labels must be shed in order to release the guilt of "being different" without diminishing the tradition from whence they came. Yet another mother load Jews have been carrying.
The real problem is how Hamas and the evil it represents has inculcated itself in countries such as Australia, America, Canada and Britain.
Yes, people who want to live in peace and security, with hope for their Children's future have infiltrated all western Democracies. The result of Gouvernments who deny them that.
Not so! Hamas, Palestinian Authority, etc.. are so corrupt, all the trillions of dollars pouring to them ends in the hands of a handful, with the majority left with nothing. And so, never ending indoctrination of hate inflates the psyches of masses to keep them in a continuous state of misery and false hope. Imagine the opposite, where all the trillions were wisely used to build a prosperous and functioning society, where Gaza on the Mediterranean could be a tourist attraction, etc.. etc.. But, their psyche is not up to the challenge, they are basically still a tribe running with the camels in the desert!!
About their psyche : nothing to do with a tribe running camels in the desert !
Never underestimate an enemy who's evil but effective strategy has been studied and prepared for years, with hate indoctrination of generations of innocent children based on pure evil.
After studying the Israeli culture & politics for years while in prison, while practicing torture and murder on fellow Palestinian prisoners suspected of sympathizing or working with Israël, the Hamas leaders have planned their strategies, which goes further then developing a huge network of sophisticated underground tunnels with high tech facilities and weapon manufacturing factories.
Generations are raised from early childhood to hate and annihilate Israël by killing jews and infidels. They are taught narratives : Israel does not exist on their maps and in their school books. For them Israël is the oppressor that needs to be annihilated by all means.
De-radicalizing this brainwashed population fed on an ideology based on narratives and taught to hate and kill is a huge challenge, which can hopefully be reached by teaching the children in a constructive manner, and finding Palestinians who reject Hamas for their ideology and still believe in peace to realize this challenge.
And most important do not underestimate the role of the Iranian government who's been planning and financing this war for years to reach their own goals, nuclear power and seemingly installing worldwide islamic caliphates.
Well that's remarkably hateful.
Very constructive.
Not hateful, just realistic.
https://www.firstthings.com/article/2003/02/the-virtue-of-hate
Very interesting article. Makes me wonder : man created God by his own image...
Each man being capable of good and evil deeds
Main cause of wars :
Religion and tribal behavior, power & greed
If mankind stops division by differences created by narratives or holy scriptures
If mankind starts realizing that we're all human beings with the same needs, food, water, security
That all human beings suffer pain, grief and long for some kind of happiness
If WE ALL realize in heart and mind that harming eachother and exploiting living creatures is harming ourselves
Maybe then peace in life is possible
Instead of clinging to the religious beliefs that this life's just a road to heaven after death
"Everyone wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die"
(Peter T)
"people who want to live in peace and security, with hope for their Children's future"
That would exclude all the inhabitants of the 21 sovereign Arab countries today, each and everyone of them a despotic, deeply corrupt and violent society.
Other than natural resources, they have no economic prospects, except for Morocco which has started an aerospace subcontracted industry.
The same societies they come from are what they're trying to replace the West with.
Enjoy some news from Startup Nation:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/intel-officially-launches-most-significant-chip-lineup-sired-in-israel/
I assume you’re a Trump supporter. Just need to add the words “vermin” and you can join the Third Reich!!!
How many of these people have you actually met and gotten to know? I’ve worked closely for 20 years with Moderate Religious Muslims who were raised in these very countries.
Fortunately they don’t assume that all Jews are like Bernie Madoff or Baruch Goldstein. In fact their worldview is far more closely aligned with Moderate Religious Zionists like me then with racist extremists (whether Arab, Israeli, MAGA or Ivy League liberals).
I am quite comfortable with statistics and the central limit theorem, which show just over 3 out of 4 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza approve of the October 7 atrocities:
https://www.jns.org/three-in-four-palestinians-support-hamass-massacre/
I remember that Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, acknowledged the Golan Heights as part of Israel, used American diplomacy to push through the Abraham Accords with the UAE and issued an executive order making anti-Semitism a Title VI Civil Rights violation in universities. I was not aware these were also policies of the Third Reich.
All very impressive accomplishments, in direct contrast to anemic, pusillanimous efforts of all previous administrations.
Let’s simply agree to disagree
Agree to disagree on what, exactly? That these are significant and forward looking steps or that the majority of Palestinians approve of Hamas actions? Both are facts.
I wonder if it would be at all possible to have honest conversations about the fact that there should be no Palestinian state because there is no precursors to create and sustain one? Can the Palestinians leave Gaza and start a new life elsewhere? Negotiations should focus on creating a Palestinian enclave within Jordan, for example, similar to Kurdistan within Iraq, with no ties to Israel, as a start? I am puzzled at how Palestinians are treated by the international community, including foreign governments when in reality half of the world population had to flee their ancestral homes due to wars, disasters, terror, tribal infighting, and didn’t demand the right of return. Palestinians should not be granted an exemption of forever refugees. They need to create an entirely new narrative that is not linked to Jew hatred and death, and that might take many generations. This revitalisation should not become Israel’s problem any more.
"creating a Palestinian enclave within Jordan"
That was much of the 1984 Reagan Peace Plan.
It was rejected by Israel and would probably have been rejected by Jordan had Israel not responded so quickly.
Jordan's ruling family is already threatened by the majority Palestinian population without bringing in a West Bank component. They can also see the example of Kurdistan: endless revolts against the central governments in Iran, Iraq and Turkey.
I don’t remember in detail why Israel rejected the Reagan plan, perhaps the issue of Jerusalem was not handled properly?
I am aware that Jordan doesn’t want Palestinians nor does anyone else. An independent Palestinian state isn’t possible either, given its threat to Israel’s security. Which brings a question - why invest in rebuilding Gaza and “revitalise” its population, which clearly isn’t plausible, given that UNRWA will certainly have to be dismantled and the entire “refugee” status of Palestinians has to go.
That’s a cool and reasonable thought. The world is not ready for it and will not be ready until another Holocaust happens. The world is on fire with pro-Palestinian passion and rage and hatred for Israel and Jews.
The biggest threat to Israel is the Muslim Brotherhood Nazi supporters in US and EU. Michael Oren probably realized how corrupted the US has become by Islamists during his tenure but could never fully articulate and risk alienating himself.
Israel can handle jihadists on the battlefield. I don't know if they can overcome jihadists in the State Department, EU, UN, etc. There is a concerted effort to fuck Israel no matter the cost. They hate Jews and they want them dead.
Israel is a tiny country very dependent on foreign exports and global acceptance. It wouldn't survive Russia-style sanctions which the US could manufacture consent for in the media it controls.
I don't think Israelis full realize the level of hostility many in the West have for Jews. The only Jews they like are ones who lick their ass.
Countering that is the tremendous support for Israel among the Christian Evangelical community. The largest pro- Israel organization in the world is Christians United for Israel (https://cufi.org ).
Much of the hatred for Israel is hatred for the West by left-wingers opposed to the values of the Enlightenment: tolerance, rationality, merit, individual liberty. This is not 1930s Germany, where the entire nation hates the Jews and loves everyone else.
Israel and Jews in the Diaspora need to recognize the difference and join hands with all potential allies. There are many non-Jewish allies and some Jewish groups that are enemies, like J-Street and Jewish Voice for Peace.
A majority of Americans support additional military aid to Ukraine. So does the White House and a majority of both houses of Congress. So why the delay? Because a handful of MAGA extremist can block a vote in the House.
Do you really think the same can’t happen to Israel (I.e.,, that the House can’t flip into the hands of a small group of progressive extremists)? Biden being forced to step aside at the upcoming Democratic Presidential Convention may be Israel’s greatest existential threat.
US public support for Ukraine has shrunk and is no longer a majority:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
Even if the House flips, there is still significant support for Israel among centrist Democrats, as seen in the latest, and very exciting, Harvard-Harris poll
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-us-public-remains-steadfast-in-its-support/
I recommend getting the full pdf of the poll as it makes for great reading
https://harvardharrispoll.com/topline-february-2/
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/would-joe-bidens-abandoning-support-of-israel-yield-electoral-success/
Being loud is not the same as being strong.
This is not 1948: Israel's defense industries have grown to world scale. UK exports about $150M a year of defense equipment to Israel but imports much more, including armor plate for the critical Type 26 frigate.
https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/56638
Agree that a cut off of military aid to Israel would be vigorously opposed by a vast majority of Americans (including a vast majority of house members from both parties), far more so than with Ukraine.
But will bipartisan outrage deter or embolden disrupters like Matt Gaetz (on the far right) or AOC (on the far left)?.
If a handful of MAGA extremists can shut down the current GOP controlled house why wouldn’t the Squad return the favor in the next Democratic controlled one?
Even if the odds are low, isn’t the downside potentially existential (for example, if the house is blocked from approving Israel’s rearmament following a surprise escalation from Hezbollah (perhaps joined by other Iranian proxies))?
Or if such rearmament is conditioned on an unconditional cease fire in Gaza? Or UN membership of a Palestinian State in accordance with UN resolution 242? Or recognition of a single democratic state from river to sea with equal rights to all residents?
As a child of survivors (whose family on both sides perished in Auschwitz) its probably in my DNA to worry about low probability existential threats.
Israel's rearmament is primarily from Israel: Merkava tanks, Namer and Eitan armored vehicles, Spike antitank missiles, Hermes and Heron UAVs, ATMOS self-propelled artillery, SeaBreaker cruise missiles, SPICE glider bombs with machine vision guidance, RAMPAGE air launched ballistic missiles. (enjoyable time googling these!)
About half of US defense aid in recent years consisted of jet fuel. Only aircraft and helicopters are from the US and I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future Apache attack helicopters will be supplemented or replaced by this beauty
https://www.forces.net/technology/weapons-and-kit/golden-eagle-worlds-first-ever-ai-controlled-uav-weapons-system
[1/3 of all F-35 Strike Fighters have their wings manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. All the F-35 heads-up helmet displays come from Elbit.]
Much of the recent emergency shipments were for low tech items like dumb bombs (to be fitted with SPICE guidance kits in Israel), explosives and ammunition. Israel defense firms had offshored this production in favor of higher tech, higher value items and are now restoring production in Israel.
A variety of infantry weapons are available from
https://iwi.net/products/
The civilian version of the Tavor assault rifle won NRA rifle of the year.
https://theaviationist.com/2019/04/24/lets-talk-about-the-israeli-rampage-stand-off-weapon-reportedly-used-in-combat-in-syria-for-the-first-time/
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/iron-sting-an-exclusive-look-inside-israelis-new-precision-mortar/
It's no longer 1948 when it comes to Israel's rearmament!
Happy to hear that, unlike 1948, Israel’s rearmament is “primarily” from Israel. But being 70% or 80% self sufficient may not be enough if Israel is being bombarded simultaneously by Hezballah, the Houthis and Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria (which would happen in a heartbeat if the US cuts off military aid to Israel)
Feels like a re-run from the fall of 1973. You sound like Moshe Dayan in late September while I sound like Golda Mayer begging America for arms just a few days later.
You may be right — this is not 1948 nor 1973. But that’s what they said on October 6th.
We hear the same rhetoric on demographics — I.e., a Jewish majority is not at risk even if Israel annexes the entire West Bank and Gaza and grants equal voting rights to all residents West of the Jordan River. Everyone says it but no one is willing to agree to it. In other words, a bare majority is not sufficient. When it comes to existential risks, a “margin of error” is essential.
I hope your optimism is never put to the test in practice
It's all by design. US/Western media pumping out never-ending Pallywood to manufacture consent. Noam Chomsky wasn't wrong about the media.
One has to wonder what role China is playing. If they're boosting pro-Hamas propaganda to separate US from Israel.
US is playing a dangerous game. Counting on Israel's loyalty and taking full advantage.
I agree. Israel without friends is one massive ghetto. I know I am being very negative but I very much fear for the third destruction of the temple . This time by the jihadi nazis of the West once they have taken over the West and its arsenal through ‘democratic’ means. Too horrific to contemplate.
"no amount of firepower can annihilate a concept"
Firepower annihilated the islamists in Algeria following the 1991 election they won, the Shining Path guerrillas in Peru in the 1990s and the Marxist guerrillas in Argentina and Uruguay in the 1970s.
The hard-hitting methods used in those cases can be subcontracted to an appropriate proxy in post war Gaza, where they will be more effective because of the confined territory.
Palestinian polling shows more the 3/4 of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza explicitly support the Oct 7 atrocities. No amount of education or peace offerings is going to overcome that. Fortunately the peace Israel needs is with the Gulf states and Egypt. Encouraging to see Nir Barkat openly shake hands and chat with the Saudi Commerce Minister at the WTO meeting in Doha this week.
https://www.jns.org/three-in-four-palestinians-support-hamass-massacre/
What would that firepower be and who would agree to such scenario?
Mohammed Dahlan, former Gaza strongman and now longtime advisor to UAE, has suggested that role, possibly for himself, with the help of a multinational Arab force.
Firepower would be the same repression used effectively in the Arab world and South America to put down guerilla movements.
That might also require a serious reworking of Iran’s control of its multiple proxies in the region, and it is not clear to me how the current administration might handle it.
For there to be any chance of neutralizing Hamas’ message, a fundamental shift has to take place within Islam itself. Perhaps something akin to the Hewish conception that the Messiah will come in God’s good time, that there is nothing humans can do to advance the divine timetable and its heresy to pretend otherwise. That alone would be a major step but, in the end, this is an intra-Muslim argument. From the outside, only continued pressure on Hamas - whose goal is to show it as the “weak horse” - can push things in a better direction.
As a majority of Israelis have concluded, since at least the second intifada, the future is one of separating from the Palestinians, there are but two options: a state for them or their expulsion. Israel (being better than, say, the Europeans) will not take the second approach - though Palestinians might be asked their opinion on the subject of leaving for greener pastures with the possibility of returning when things are calmer.
So a “two states for two peoples” seems the only future. What that state will look like internally, who governs, what is taught, what its borders will be are all up for discussion. And Israel cannot exclude itself from those discussions.
There seems no reason to broach the subject publicly while the war goes on, let alone suggest their maximal territorial demands if the 2002 Saudi Plan remain available. It would be seen by all as a monumental reward for Hamas’ barbaric butchery - which, in turn, would only make destroying it as an “idea” that much more difficult and leave all Israel at risk if further attack.
If anything, the Palestinians must recognize that they have been defeated in battle, that Hamas is the reason the new offer for peace is less than it might have been before October 7 and that violence will not advance their cause.
Completely agree. A future de-militarized Palestinian State might eventually be feasible unless torpedoed by messianic extremists on both sides.
"A future de-militarized Palestinian State" is pure fantasy. Look how effective the "blockade" on Gaza was in keeping mostly Iranian armaments out. Foreign aid money not used to build their terror infrastructure underground was used to pay Egypt to look the other way when arms were smuggled in. The other mistake everyone in this thread, including Michael Oren, makes is accepting the existence of a distinct Palestinian people. It is a fiction imposed on the world by Arafat and his PLO PR machine about 60 years ago. They are simply Arabs living in Gaza and elsewhere culturally, ethnically, and religiously indistinct from Arabs in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, etc. It's time to change the narrative and not spread false hope for this pitiful group of people who have been left to languish living off UN and other foreign support for 75+ years while their "leaders" amass billions in wealth.
Today everything is pure fantasy (other than continuing to condemn future generations of Jewish and Arab children, grandchildren and great grandchildren to yet another 75 year cycle of violence).
But the same can be said — and in fact was said by Jabotinsky — more than 100 years ago And by Moshe Dayan more than 70 years ago. How did they expect this pure fantasy (nightmare) to end?
My guess is that they fantasized about the day when saving our respective children and grandchildren begins to outweighs avenging the wrongful deaths of our respective parents and grandparents.
If that day ever comes — when moderates on both sides can silence their respective extremists— maybe then we can try to reach an accommodation where Palestinians gain self determination and Israelis gain security — for example a de-militarized Palestinian State under IDF security supervision (in terms of border crossings and internal terror threats).
Do you think Jabotinsky or Dayan had a more realistic plan?
The question is - how to do that? Everyone is obsessed with the “genocide” of the Palestinians who, unlike any other group, are not allowed to leave Gaza. So what to do?
Patience is a virtue (think President Herzog). Incitement is a curse (think Hamas, Ben Gvir, etc). A period of healing is needed after the intentional slaughter of Jews on October 7th as well as the unintended collateral damage to innocent women and children in Gaza). Expect extremists to disrupt the healing process whenever possible
Ugh, typos - mostly “if” where “of” is intended. At my age, eye-finger coordination is apparently no longer what it used to be.
How do you propose to “deradicalize its population”? Until now, everything failed at this goal. As devoted Muslims, won’t they always strive to eradicate Israel as Quran calls for?
Messianic extremists on both sides will never accept a two state solution on holy land promised only to them. Compromise in God’s name is acceptable only to Moderate Religious Zionists and Muslims.
True. But isn’t “moderate Muslim” an oxymoron?
I’ve had the privilege of working closely with Moderate Religious Muslims for more than 20 years. Their worldview is far more aligned with Moderate Religious Zionists (like me) then either one of us is our respective messianic brethren
Thank you for sharing your experience. Frankly, I didn't think they existed because they are completely invisible in that version of reality we have access to. What we mostly see is extremism on both sides. Especially on the Islamic side.
I can reread but what are these "bold steps." What does "federated"mean...with whom or what other entity or state. I see prevailing "wisdom" on MSNBC's Morning Joe where the eponymous host rails against Netanyahu's obstinacy....according to the numbers often cited there are no dead hamas fighters, only the babies buried under rubble. As always its Israel's disproportionate response.....ONLY 1,200 vs 30K innocent Gazans. So how does Israel pursue this war to eradicate hamas as military and remove battalions miles from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem? And insure that these battalions never return with UN collusion as in Lebanon. A change will have to come in Palestinian society....peace with Israel not instead of Israel.
Neither Nazism ceased to exist after the defeat of Nazi Germany, nor communism after the collapse of the USSR. Al Qaeda has not ceased to exist and ISIS has not ceased to exist. Like any extremist group after its defeat.
Two factors are important to ensure that parasites cannot harm the host (that’s me in the biological sense). Removing parasites from the host's body and preventing the parasites from causing harm.
In order for Hamas to not be able to harm either Israel or others, it is necessary to inflict a crushing military defeat on it, and then create conditions under which Arab communities that want to live in peace and create a peaceful economy, infrastructure and enjoy their fruits will not allow Hamas to return.
Israel can do the former. He cannot and should not do the second. It can only help.
Thank you, very interesting, well written article. I choose not to hate, I find it destructive. Is it an energy that can be harnessed to achieve a goal (protection)
Maybe. In terms of revenge I think it destroys the individual harboring that hatred. I certainly admit that there exist situations where avoiding hatred is extremely difficult. Making our World a better place for all Humans requires new thinking, leaps of Faith and Trust.
Hatred is unfortunately Real
I have just finished reading “six days of war”. What a book!
Thank you as usual Ambassador for your strategic and moral clarity
This is a sober analysis of the situation with Hamas. Reminds us that a fighting force is not the sole carrier of a backward-looking vision and goal. Glad to hear that some progress has been made both in Britain and in Saudi Arabia on providing some re-education for the Palestinian youth so that they will realize that wiping out Israel and bringing back the caliphate are not the solution.
Michael, I'm sure you've seen the "educational" materials used in Hamas and UNRWA schools in Gaza and West Bank (really Judea and Samaria). Arab children are taught to hate Jews and that Israel will be destroyed from the earliest age. What's the adage - people's attitudes are formed by kindergarten? There will be no real peace with these people until there are 2 generations growing up learning that peace and co-existence with Jews and Israel is not only possible, but desirable. The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan were political and military decisions and have been enforced because citizens of those countries (like virtually all Arab countries) have no say. Ask Israeli tourists how safe and comfortable they feel when visiting there?
The other mistake being made is accepting the existence of a distinct Palestinian people. It is a fiction imposed on the world by Arafat and his PLO PR machine about 60 years ago. They are simply Arabs living in Gaza and elsewhere, culturally, ethnically, and religiously indistinct from Arabs in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, etc. It's time to change the narrative and not spread false hope for this pitiful group of people who have been left to languish living off UN and other foreign support for 75+ years while their "leaders" amass billions in wealth. If other Arab nations and the world really cared about these people, they would take them in like refugees from every other conflict in the world have been treated, unless they are Jews, of course.
Lead us through the math where you get Hamas being 60% neutralized.
34,000 you said in one brigade. Was that everybody for Hamas? You didn’t say.
10000 killed. That gets us to almost 30% “neutralized”.
Then we just get “thousands” for captured or surrendered.
60% is a very specific number and would be more credible if we knew how you came up with it. Maybe preface with “I guessing about . . .”
The loudest echo in the world right now comes from cowards. Israel has been given yet another ridiculous load to carry : that of its own "day after" (that no one seems to mention), the "day after" the "home land" of the weasels has been eradicated, the "day after" the psychological violence has invaded the inner home of the Jewish psyche, the "day after" the US has meddled in the affairs of the middle east, the "day after" the antisemitic hateful mobs in Europe have done their damage... I can go on of course. The level of narcissism in the world at large demonstrated by a refusal for self responsibility is outstandingly high. If Israel feels any guilt regarding their necessary actions for self defense, they must stop. The only reason idiots dump their shit on others, is because they know they can manipulate their guilt- ridden confidence/conscience. Jews everywhere must own their power regardless of what anyone else thinks of them. We will keep rising above all the injustice and hate, but there must also be radical inner change of this Jewish guilt. It's the "special child/chosen one" syndrome, the "survivor" syndrome, the "outcast" syndrome. All these labels must be shed in order to release the guilt of "being different" without diminishing the tradition from whence they came. Yet another mother load Jews have been carrying.