32 Comments

Israel needs this inevitable and awful deal. And Israel needs the death penalty for terrorists.

Expand full comment

The failure of October 7 is impossible to "correct" as it is so massive and tragic. I am, however, hopeful that this "deal" does not signal the end of the war, and there is a deeper strategy at play here. Sadly, the hostages that will be released during phase 1 are most likely the only hostages we get as there might not be phase 2. Was the outcome inevitable? Yes, given how many hostages were taken and the price Israel has to pay to return them. That was the "wisdom of Hamas," as explained by Matti Friedman, who brilliantly demonstrated the terrorists' winning strategy and the West's weakness and inability to understand Islamism within its borders and globally. Team Biden's tight bear hug and its constant demand to resupply Hamas with "humanitarian aid" ensured that Israel could not win. Truly heartbreaking.

Expand full comment

This was all about feeding Trump’s ego and narcissism. I am disgusted by the man. So he can say he did a deal and argues with Biden like a petty child about who did the deal.

All the Israeli lives lost in this war were for nothing. The terrorists win. Trump and his mate Witkoff put the screws to Israel. The only ‘hell to pay’ is by Israel.

Expand full comment

Shame on both of them, it would have been a moment in history for Netanyahu to stand up and say I can't I won't because this facilitates that but it was not that time in history and the facade will continue.

Speaking of continuing facades in America

https://www.investigativeproject.org/document/20-an-explanatory-memorandum-on-the-general

Expand full comment

It will probably deflate the military.

Expand full comment

Specifically what will deflate the military?

Expand full comment

400 soldiers killed, many thousands maimed plus 15 months of protracted fighting. Fighting with one hand tied behind their backs, trying to keep civilian deaths to a minimum, only to be constantly criticized and yet in the end, Hamas is not decimated. In fact, it looks like they'll be able to strengthen themselves once again as before.

Expand full comment

Uh, you act like America didn’t slaughter hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims only to create tens thousands of new terrorists. Biden understood the unmitigated disaster that was Bush’s Global War on Terror and advised Netanyahu accordingly. That said, Netanyahu has done a much better job than Bush…but time will tell.

Expand full comment

Notably absent from all the reporting of this deal is any renunciation of Hamas's declared intent to eliminate the Jews and Israel's intent to destroy Hamas.

Expand full comment

Hamas will never renounce that. It’s a core belief.

Expand full comment

Hostage negotiations = defeat. Outlaw hostage negotiations.

https://dente.substack.com/p/outlaw-hostage-negotiations?r=25gwo2

And by the way, there should be no terrorists to trade. The correct policy with captured terrorists is interrogate, then kill. This avoids the Sinwar phenomenon: capture, coddle, release, reap mayhem. As a Jew I have to ask, how stupid are the Jews to repeat this cycle over and over?

Expand full comment

I look to your thoughts for insight and encouragement. So there is nothing for encouragement. Israel's catastrophe of Oct 7th. Let the Hostage sq demonstrator show anger at Netanyahu...he was the prime minister while the gaza border was unprotected. Now this horrible "deal." All ready in the freezing NYC weather the jihadis are out in Times Sq. celebrating this momentous victory and warning it's only the beginning...of Israel's destruction. They ae a little premature in their celebrating but hard times remain when hamas remains in control in Gaza.

Expand full comment

Correct. Oct 7 changed history and was a great failure for Israel!!!

Expand full comment

While I obviously applaud the return home of any hostages, I can’t help but see future tragedy being sown here. Given Hamas’ demonstrated willingness to sacrifice their entire people for incremental gains, how can this give them anything but an incentive to regroup and do the same thing over and over again?

I’ve never understood why Israel’s stance has ever been anything but: return every hostage or the fighting continues. I pray I’m wrong in seeing this as selling out not only the remaining hostages, but all the dead ones- not to mention fallen soldiers- as well.

Expand full comment

Mr. Oren, please run for Prime Minister in Israel!

Expand full comment

Part of the weakening of Hamas’ negotiating position was likely the combination of Trump’s statement and the IDF’s forcing Hezbollah off the battlefield and the destruction of Iran’s air defense, rendering it unlikely vulnerable.

Until then, it was the utter failure of the international community - and most disgustingly the ICRC, the world’s most expensive chauffeuring company - to publicly and repeatedly demand the hostages immediate and unconditional release and to pressure Qatar and Turkey on that point, that led to Hamas’ intransigence.

Not even the cold blooded execution of Hersh Goldberg-Polin and his five fellow hostages - a direct slap in the face of Biden in particular and the US in general - failed to move our country’s policy from prioritizing the welfare of Gazans (thereby materially assisting Hamas) to making the hostages unconditional return Priority #1.

The entire episode shames the West, especially the EU who supposedly share Western values, and bodes ill for the future.

The lesson, articulated by Blinken without any recognition of the irony, is that there should never be any “sunlight” between the U.S. and Israel - in other words, it’s past time to reject the Obama Doctrine as the counterproductive failure it has always been.

Expand full comment

The Islamic elephant in the room isn't acknowledged or pointed out with clarity often enough and look at Malley and Irgc witkoff with Qatar and so many more individuals doing the work of the Muslim Brotherhood as illustrated here

https://www.investigativeproject.org/document/20-an-explanatory-memorandum-on-the-general

Expand full comment

Qatar is our ally. They are very obviously a backchannel to very nasty people that we can’t speak to directly. The key to the future is LNG…and Tillerson is essentially a member of the Qatari royal family.

Expand full comment

OK, after the ceasefire, what is the plan for the security of Gaza? Will armed gangs fill the vacuum of departing IDF and the situation is left to fester and erupt into violence again? The end of this war is the first step, but the prevention of a new one to follow is the next.

Expand full comment

...and we all bear some responsibility for Oct 7... ---incl our arrogance and inattention... The situation in the West Bank has been unacceptable and is now worse!!!

The government failed miserably!!! despite warnings.

And we have lost a lot--- incl over 1K young men.

Awful. Terrible. Not acceptable.

Expand full comment

No such thing as "Never Again." How about we change it to "Always Again."

Expand full comment

The question to ask today is "Is this what Sinwahr expected when he launched the war?", that being, the destruction of Hezbollah's leaders and most of its armaments, the weakening of Iran, and the collapse of Syria and its Iranian support resulting in a region where Israel is militarily dominant and Hamas is isolated? And yes, Hamas may still rule Gaza, but it is a Gaza made up of rubble and people living in tents dependent on humanitarian aid for existence. Hamas may be getting many of its terrorists back but to what purpose, a future repeat of the hell they are in?

Expand full comment

Great point. But it still does not look like victory.

Expand full comment

Perhaps the failure of October 7th, or something like it where our creative and intelligent enemies will find a way to take hostages was inevitable because of previous failures looked the Shalit deal, which gave them every reason to see taking hostages as their golden ticket to at least survival and perhaps even victory over us? Perhaps the deal is simply a replay of those past failures and will lead to more hostages being taken in the future for even higher stakes? You may be right that Israeli society is demanding this. Perhaps Israeli society is wrong and self destructive...

Expand full comment

I will always support Israel. But this deal stinks. Less Athenian weakness, continued Spartan bravery.

Expand full comment