President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration this January will signal a tectonic shift in American foreign policy unmatched by any since Ronald Reagan's swearing in 43 years before.
Lot of wish projection here. Trump against the advice of Pompeo pulled out of the bad deal and went to no deal and a declared no threat of military force unleashing Iranian enrichment. Trump refused against the advice of everyone to retaliate against Iran for the drone attack on Saudi Arabia driving the Saudis closer to Iran and destroying American deterrence. And then he kept bragging about saving Iranian lives. Trump refused Israel’s request for bunker buster bombs. Believe him when he says no wars. He means it and has already given Israel deadlines. Believe him that he likes Putin who likes Iran China and North Korea. Remember that he did nothing to slow the North Korean nuclear missile program. He has demonstrated weakness and declared weakness. He is not going to stand against expansionism, he cares only about economic expansionism. Because Biden was not strong enough does not mean Trump is stronger. As proven , he fears popular opinion and follows it. He’s a demo gauge who will not buck his fan base who wants out of the Middle East. He set the policy of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Yes he killed one bad guy from a drone . As to Reagan , he started this by cutting and running when they blew up the marine barracks in Lebanon. Do not place your trust in princes , for they do not redeem.
As a former Democrat, I can now hardly wait for Trump to take over after Biden’s many disastrous foreign policy mistakes. I wonder if Trump would have approved the Hezbollah truce Biden blackmailed Bibi into signing, by withholding weapons to Israel.
Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess” — Oscar Wilde.
January 20, 1981, moments after President Ronald Reagan was inaugurated, Iran’s mullahs released hostages held for 444 days when America had nincompoop “righteous” Carter in that position. Iran’s capitulation (and Mexico’s) may not take that long. The Middle Kingdom will take a bit longer, with economic power the likely weapon.
Let’s revisit this column in a year. I’m all but positive none of the predictions you make about Trump will come true. Quite the contrary a chaotic unpredictable and incoherent foreign policy is what we’re almost certain to see out of the White House
I hope you are right. I think the goals you set out are the Administration’s. But he has a huge problem of rolling back Obama’s destroy America infiltration of all parts of our nation.
I echo your point about the UN. It and its agencies are captive to states headed by dictators, theocrats, kleptocrats, and outright thugs. The US should end its support.
The US should arrest and try the head of UNWRA for terrorism. It should sanction everyone who works for the ICC.
The Secretary-General, a special villain, is a terror supporter. He would enjoy life in the tropics--Guantanamo.
Many critical thinking and rational Australians long for our own Trump.
We are on our way to being a hybrid of California and Canada..........
The people are slowly awakening.......but we need help.
May I take this moment to apologise to the world for our poor reputation as a nation for being the only Western country who has refused to consider nuclear power (despite having the biggest uranium deposit in the world), and for being the first nation to "appear" to protect U16s with a social media ban, when in fact (and the world's media did not pick this up), we all (including adults) have to sign up to the Digital ID (CCP-style) so that we can be tracked, monitored and dissenters punished. It was a Trojan horse. The teenagers will find a way to get around it. An Orwellian world is just around the corner.
Mr. Oran seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room - isolationism.
"Though isolationism will continue to pose challenges to interventionism and America's traditional role as defender of the free world, there will at least be a sense freedom cannot be safeguarded by rhetoric."
I get a strong sense of Americans tiring of their "traditional role as defender of the free world" and a desire to concentrate more on dire domestic concerns. Truth be known, the average American cares more about the price of eggs than risking a foolishly costly war with China over Taiwan. What would that do to prices in Walmart?
For someone who disdains "rhetoric", this essay is certainly full of it or maybe we should call it what it is... propaganda. Mr. Oran has a wonderfully fact-free view of world history. The U.S. has lost almost every military conflict since WWII - Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. "Insanity is repeating something expecting different results."
Whiplash is a great term. Dr. Oren is very optimistic and has all of the right policy positions. If implemented they have a great chance of success. IF alll of this can be accomplished, Trump will go down as one of our greatest presidents. And will deserve the praise of a grateful world. Can he stick with it like Reagan?
How does the second Bush’s whiplash figure in this narrative? At immense cost in lives and treasure, it ended by handing Iraq into Iran’s sphere of influence and opening a path for Isis.
With all due respect I do not understand how offering Russia territorial gains in Ukraine and imposing neutrality on Ukraine projects the strength of the United States? Please help me out here.
"In Europe, the Trump team is determined to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This will likely involve direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a settlement based on the territorial status quo and guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality."
Of course Russia will do everything in its power to change the "status quo" before "a negotiated settlement" is achieved.
Will Russia have to compensate Ukraine in any manner whatsoever for the death and destruction they unleashed on the Ukrainian people?
" I do not understand how offering Russia territorial gains in Ukraine and imposing neutrality on Ukraine projects the strength of the United States? Please help me out here"
Gladly!
Offer Russia Ukrainian neutrality, lifting sanctions and status quo borders in exchange for Russia halting weapons sales to China and throwing Iran under the bus.
We lose a Ukraine that never mattered much (Ukraine was dominated by Russia from 1776 to 1991 and see how the US prospered in that time) while our adversaries China and Iran lose their most important ally.
So why did the White House encourage the war and not deterred it? My understanding was that promising Ukraine neutrality could have prevented Russian invasion, yet the U.S. declared its ironclad support and blah blah blah. Then essentially abandoned Ukraine and outright rejected any chances of ceasefire talks. Ironically, Team Biden literally exhibited a ceasefire fetish toward Israel despite the fact that Israel could have succeeded militarily in Gaza a lot faster. How does it make any sense??
What the Biden administration encouraged and what was in the best interests of the United States are two different things.
William Burns, current head of the CIA and Ambassador to Moscow in 2008, warned in a classified memo that opposition to Ukraine joining NATO was the one thing that would unify Russians from the most liberal opposition to the most reactionary in the Kremlin. Alexei Navalny welcomed the annexation of Crimea.
Henry Kissinger also warned about the danger of provoking Russia over Ukraine.
Instead of keeping our adversaries divided , they've been pushed to join forces over an issue that has little value to the US.
While for Israel, it is vitally important for the US that an ally is not defeated by an Iranian jihadist grouping. Similar reasoning was used by Kissinger and Nixon during the Yom Kippur War when they did not want Soviet armed states defeating an American armed one.
Russia is in a dreadful position now: a primitive economy (other than weapons industries) based on mineral exports whose only client is China. What kind of deals will the Chinese be driving through? They would be amenable to improved relations with the West at almost any price other than Ukraine.
I don’t have a subscription to FT but I agree with those who say the war in Ukraine could have been prevented. It should have never happened, and at this point diplomacy is a preferred solution. I don’t see a conceivable scenario that would create conditions in which Russia hands back Crimea, and the parts of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts it invaded since 2022. The opposite is true with regards to Israel-Iran conflict, where Team Biden tries to restrain its ally instead of deterring its adversaries. It is absurd!
Handing over 1/2 of Ukraine which is worthless to the US im order to separate Russia from China and Iran, which is worth a lot to the US.
America has enormous strengths: economic, technologies, military and doesn't need to project anything. Any country foolish enough not to realize that is not worth bothering with.
I’m deleting Micheal Oren. His reactiveness and dismissal of Joe Biden the last and best Zionist president. Or maybe I have misjudged Michael’s own transactional view of the world. He is transactional much like Donald. Donald would sell out the Jews and Israel for a pocket of silver there can be no doubt. And he will. Probably for Saudi money.
And BTW, we can also argue the Reagan had nothing to do with the fall of the USSR. he happened to be president when Gorbachev came along and the Soviet system was bankrupt at that point. Such simplistic thinking by Oren.
Lot of wish projection here. Trump against the advice of Pompeo pulled out of the bad deal and went to no deal and a declared no threat of military force unleashing Iranian enrichment. Trump refused against the advice of everyone to retaliate against Iran for the drone attack on Saudi Arabia driving the Saudis closer to Iran and destroying American deterrence. And then he kept bragging about saving Iranian lives. Trump refused Israel’s request for bunker buster bombs. Believe him when he says no wars. He means it and has already given Israel deadlines. Believe him that he likes Putin who likes Iran China and North Korea. Remember that he did nothing to slow the North Korean nuclear missile program. He has demonstrated weakness and declared weakness. He is not going to stand against expansionism, he cares only about economic expansionism. Because Biden was not strong enough does not mean Trump is stronger. As proven , he fears popular opinion and follows it. He’s a demo gauge who will not buck his fan base who wants out of the Middle East. He set the policy of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Yes he killed one bad guy from a drone . As to Reagan , he started this by cutting and running when they blew up the marine barracks in Lebanon. Do not place your trust in princes , for they do not redeem.
Picks like Tulsi Gabbard aren’t encouraging.
Trump's tariff threat has already motivated Mexico to close its northern border.
As a former Democrat, I can now hardly wait for Trump to take over after Biden’s many disastrous foreign policy mistakes. I wonder if Trump would have approved the Hezbollah truce Biden blackmailed Bibi into signing, by withholding weapons to Israel.
Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess” — Oscar Wilde.
January 20, 1981, moments after President Ronald Reagan was inaugurated, Iran’s mullahs released hostages held for 444 days when America had nincompoop “righteous” Carter in that position. Iran’s capitulation (and Mexico’s) may not take that long. The Middle Kingdom will take a bit longer, with economic power the likely weapon.
I would say Biden has demonstrated excess. An excess of pathetic weakness.
I don't think the Iranian hostages stands to credit Reagan's machinations on that front.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/expert-analyzes-new-account-of-gop-deal-that-used-iran-hostage-crisis-for-gain
Similar to Nixon's backdoor arrangement to keep LBJ from Peace Talks with the Vietnamese
Let’s revisit this column in a year. I’m all but positive none of the predictions you make about Trump will come true. Quite the contrary a chaotic unpredictable and incoherent foreign policy is what we’re almost certain to see out of the White House
You're rather pessimistic, aren't you? You speak like a man who doesn't pray.
I hope you are right. I think the goals you set out are the Administration’s. But he has a huge problem of rolling back Obama’s destroy America infiltration of all parts of our nation.
Good insights as always, Michael.
I echo your point about the UN. It and its agencies are captive to states headed by dictators, theocrats, kleptocrats, and outright thugs. The US should end its support.
The US should arrest and try the head of UNWRA for terrorism. It should sanction everyone who works for the ICC.
The Secretary-General, a special villain, is a terror supporter. He would enjoy life in the tropics--Guantanamo.
Many critical thinking and rational Australians long for our own Trump.
We are on our way to being a hybrid of California and Canada..........
The people are slowly awakening.......but we need help.
May I take this moment to apologise to the world for our poor reputation as a nation for being the only Western country who has refused to consider nuclear power (despite having the biggest uranium deposit in the world), and for being the first nation to "appear" to protect U16s with a social media ban, when in fact (and the world's media did not pick this up), we all (including adults) have to sign up to the Digital ID (CCP-style) so that we can be tracked, monitored and dissenters punished. It was a Trojan horse. The teenagers will find a way to get around it. An Orwellian world is just around the corner.
U16s?
We’re hoping to unload the feckless Trudeau next year (election coming up).
Mr. Oran seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room - isolationism.
"Though isolationism will continue to pose challenges to interventionism and America's traditional role as defender of the free world, there will at least be a sense freedom cannot be safeguarded by rhetoric."
I get a strong sense of Americans tiring of their "traditional role as defender of the free world" and a desire to concentrate more on dire domestic concerns. Truth be known, the average American cares more about the price of eggs than risking a foolishly costly war with China over Taiwan. What would that do to prices in Walmart?
For someone who disdains "rhetoric", this essay is certainly full of it or maybe we should call it what it is... propaganda. Mr. Oran has a wonderfully fact-free view of world history. The U.S. has lost almost every military conflict since WWII - Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. "Insanity is repeating something expecting different results."
Whiplash is a great term. Dr. Oren is very optimistic and has all of the right policy positions. If implemented they have a great chance of success. IF alll of this can be accomplished, Trump will go down as one of our greatest presidents. And will deserve the praise of a grateful world. Can he stick with it like Reagan?
He has isolationist tendencies, reinforced by picking Russophile Tulsi Gabbard. But I hope for the best.
Bravo. From your lips to God's ears.
How does the second Bush’s whiplash figure in this narrative? At immense cost in lives and treasure, it ended by handing Iraq into Iran’s sphere of influence and opening a path for Isis.
With all due respect I do not understand how offering Russia territorial gains in Ukraine and imposing neutrality on Ukraine projects the strength of the United States? Please help me out here.
"In Europe, the Trump team is determined to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This will likely involve direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a settlement based on the territorial status quo and guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality."
Of course Russia will do everything in its power to change the "status quo" before "a negotiated settlement" is achieved.
Will Russia have to compensate Ukraine in any manner whatsoever for the death and destruction they unleashed on the Ukrainian people?
" I do not understand how offering Russia territorial gains in Ukraine and imposing neutrality on Ukraine projects the strength of the United States? Please help me out here"
Gladly!
Offer Russia Ukrainian neutrality, lifting sanctions and status quo borders in exchange for Russia halting weapons sales to China and throwing Iran under the bus.
We lose a Ukraine that never mattered much (Ukraine was dominated by Russia from 1776 to 1991 and see how the US prospered in that time) while our adversaries China and Iran lose their most important ally.
So why did the White House encourage the war and not deterred it? My understanding was that promising Ukraine neutrality could have prevented Russian invasion, yet the U.S. declared its ironclad support and blah blah blah. Then essentially abandoned Ukraine and outright rejected any chances of ceasefire talks. Ironically, Team Biden literally exhibited a ceasefire fetish toward Israel despite the fact that Israel could have succeeded militarily in Gaza a lot faster. How does it make any sense??
What the Biden administration encouraged and what was in the best interests of the United States are two different things.
William Burns, current head of the CIA and Ambassador to Moscow in 2008, warned in a classified memo that opposition to Ukraine joining NATO was the one thing that would unify Russians from the most liberal opposition to the most reactionary in the Kremlin. Alexei Navalny welcomed the annexation of Crimea.
Henry Kissinger also warned about the danger of provoking Russia over Ukraine.
Instead of keeping our adversaries divided , they've been pushed to join forces over an issue that has little value to the US.
While for Israel, it is vitally important for the US that an ally is not defeated by an Iranian jihadist grouping. Similar reasoning was used by Kissinger and Nixon during the Yom Kippur War when they did not want Soviet armed states defeating an American armed one.
Russia is in a dreadful position now: a primitive economy (other than weapons industries) based on mineral exports whose only client is China. What kind of deals will the Chinese be driving through? They would be amenable to improved relations with the West at almost any price other than Ukraine.
https://www.ft.com/content/48ea2b2e-c46a-457d-8e83-a84e6ba572ed
Thank you.
I don’t have a subscription to FT but I agree with those who say the war in Ukraine could have been prevented. It should have never happened, and at this point diplomacy is a preferred solution. I don’t see a conceivable scenario that would create conditions in which Russia hands back Crimea, and the parts of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts it invaded since 2022. The opposite is true with regards to Israel-Iran conflict, where Team Biden tries to restrain its ally instead of deterring its adversaries. It is absurd!
So by handing over Ukraine? That really will project strength.
Handing over 1/2 of Ukraine which is worthless to the US im order to separate Russia from China and Iran, which is worth a lot to the US.
America has enormous strengths: economic, technologies, military and doesn't need to project anything. Any country foolish enough not to realize that is not worth bothering with.
Thank you for an insightful, intelligent article.
From your lips or pen 🖊️ to God’s ears 👂🙏🙏🙏
I’m deleting Micheal Oren. His reactiveness and dismissal of Joe Biden the last and best Zionist president. Or maybe I have misjudged Michael’s own transactional view of the world. He is transactional much like Donald. Donald would sell out the Jews and Israel for a pocket of silver there can be no doubt. And he will. Probably for Saudi money.
And BTW, we can also argue the Reagan had nothing to do with the fall of the USSR. he happened to be president when Gorbachev came along and the Soviet system was bankrupt at that point. Such simplistic thinking by Oren.
Hahahaha. Oh wait your serious. Best Zionist president. Hahahaha.
Who was more pro Israel. Don’t say Trump. He is a moron. Transactional. Are you a mumpet? Read Tim Snyder.
Definitely some truth there.