I don't see any way out short of massive war. As you note, Iran (which is the only entity that matters) is convinced that Israel is finished and there is no need to stop things now. A big part of the reason is American weakness. But the bigger part of the reason is that for the past two decades, going back to the last Lebanon war in 2006, Israel has demonstrated that it either lacks the will or the ability to achieve a strategic victory against the Iranian menace, be it Hezbollah or Hamas or anyone else. Why Israel has chosen this path is a major topic for discussion. But I don't think there is any question that a refusal or unwillingness to truly buck the United States has had a lot to do with it. And most of this (outside of Lebanon in 06) is entirely on Netanyahu. He inherited a bad hand, extremely stupid decisions to withdraw from both Lebanon (Barak) and Gaza (Sharon) were perceived not as Israel actions from strength but as defeats. But the 14 years Netanyahu has been in office he has chosen to fight multiple battles against Hamas and not achieve victory in any of them. Now despite the increasing loss of morale and the clear abandonment by the Biden administration, Israel has no choice if it wants to survive. It has to finish Hamas, make it clear that there is NO circumstance under which the UN or others will be allowed to take over again and give a quick DEVASTATING blow to Hezbollah whatever the consequence to the population of Lebanon. Failure to do this could be the beginning of the end for Israel.
I share your belief that a massive war is imminent. However, I am very, very concerned about what the American response will be. Will it simply abandon Israel, as I fear it might? Let the UN swoop in and save both Hamas and Hezbollah (only after massive amounts of Israeli casualties, of course, since the world absolutely loves it when Jews die)? Engage in some token response to the barrage of missiles and rockets that will be directed towards Israel, while handcuffing Israel so as to prevent a decisive response? Will it slink away if, as promised, Hezbollah fires missiles and rockets at American ships? All of these options are on the table, unfortunately.
The only one of these bleak options that isn't possible is the UN "swooping in". That's not possible without full American agreement and that I don't see happening. The UN is toothless. I also don't think at this point Biden can handcuff Israel. If a full war breaks out, Israel will have to win it regardless of what Biden and his fools say.
You're more optimistic than me (not unusual, I'm usually the biggest pessimist around!). I can definitely see the U.S. letting the UN intervene and us just standing aside and abstaining from an anti-Israel Security Council vote. I could also see the U.S. simply refusing to ship any munitions to Israel. Would that be deeply unpopular (except on college campuses)? Yes, but I don't think that this Administration cares.
Well said... With the leadership of both Israel and the U.S. in disarray, Iran is emboldened. Your insight that Israel now has no choice but to wade deeper into this bloody mess and cut off the snake's head is all that is left from a long string of bad decisions and unrealistic assumptions.
I do not believe the world is against us. If just appears that way because the media and academia are against us. According to polls even in Europe the people are supportive of Israel. It's the leaders, some of whom are now in danger of being voted out, who support Hamas. Even the Eurovision popular vote dramatically supported Israel.
It is time for the Israeli government to stop listening to Biden, who may also be on the way out, and do what is right for Israel. The US government executive branch will be forced by Congress to not allow Israel to lose due to lack of arms. In a game of chicken we must be strong. Think Begin and Shamir not Ehud Barak.
It is hazy but there is lots of evidence that she knew the Arabs were planning an attack in '73 but she held back due to US pressure. I think that's what we shouldn't do. But I still think she was pretty fantastic in her management of the war once it started.
This is very depressing for me to write but there is no "nice" solution. The only way Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were defeated was though massive destruction of their infrastructure and populations. It should be remembered that even after the use of two Nukes, massive firebombing campaigns with raids of over 1000 B-29's per raid, the Japanese cabinet was split 4-4 between war and peace. The Emperor had to break the tie. Even then there was an attempt by elements of the Japanese Army to continue the war. Israel is faces with a similar situation. The fanaticism on the Palestine side will not be negotiated away. Israel has the same dilemma, smaller scale but just as intractable. Killing the leaders won't end it. Kill a four star General and a three star general takes his place. Kill a three Star General and a two star general takes his place. Basically the only way most wars end is that you kill or incapacitate 1/3 to 2/3 's of the enemy's army. And if the enemy's army is the civilian population? Well. you get the idea. In the closing days of Nazi Germany young boys and old men were drafted. And they fought. Especially the boys.
Israel has to make the Palestinians more afraid of them than they are of Hamas or Hezbollah. They have to push them so far down they have to look up to see the bottom of the barrel, so to speak.
The only slim chance would be a revolution and overthrow in Iran which would deprive Hamas and Hezbollah support coupled with a complete withdrawal of support from the other Arab states.
I agree that the real bad actor that needs to be dealt with is Iran. They are the puppet master pulling the strings. I have repeatedly voiced this same mantra, where in all of this are the moderate Sunni Muslim nations who would be far better off with peace with Israel and the removal of the Iranian regime. If they think that by doing nothing with respect to Iran is going to work out for them, I suggest that is foolish thinking. If Israel falls, each of them is sure to be on Iran’s chopping block. The only question is the order in which they will pay the price. Given what is happening in Gaza and now Lebanon, Jordan is likely the next. And all of this is on Europe’s doorstep.
America is led by a dementia patient which is a metaphor for the state of America. Israel’s only hope is to hang on until hopefully Trump gets elected. Then unleash total devastation on both Hezbollah and Hamas; and yes, if need be—as some have suggested—use tactical nuclear weapons. Otherwise, what is the point of having them? The terrorists would have no qualms about using them if they had them.
Unless the enemy is defeated, what future does Israel have?
Regular bombs could do the trick. I am thinking one at the investiture of new Iranian President might be appropriate — assuming he is as bad as the last.
"Without concluding the principal battle against Hamas, without securing a ceasefire in Gaza either by pressuring Sinwar or eliminating him, and without effectively deterring Iran and Hezbollah, Israel will remain trapped in the brutal syllogism. Brave and concerted action will be required to break that equation and replace it with a radically different one..."
Netanyahu is on the defensive in Israel and Biden is reeling from his debate debacle. I am not sure who would lead this "brave and concerted action" either in Gaza or on the world stage. Any such action would require a tight, focused coalition of support and political confidence both of which are in short supply currently. To continue to "muddle through" seems the most likely outcome and one teeming with danger and unforeseen consequences.
The time to hit Hezbollah is only when Israel has fully deployed its anti-missile laser Iron Beam weapons against Hezbollah and Iran. Not before.
Israel will run out of Iron Dome missiles before Iran and Lebanon will run out of their own offensive weapons. Then Iran and Hezbollah will be able to fire freely into Israel. Iron Beam, I hope, will change everything.
Israel must be unrelenting in Gaza, even if it takes years. The tunnels to Egypt must be eliminated completely and must never be allowed to be rebuilt.
Hamas must be destroyed. The Gazan people must surrender unconditionally.
Technology alone is never enough. Low tech, e.g. people & guns also critical. I am glad the Heredi finally will be required to step up. While I appreciate their belief that divine prayer will protect Israel, it is misguided. How’s that working out so far?
Hopefully Israel will never underestimate her enemies again! The world will learn from Israel's experience how to fight the wars of the future fought with GPS guided rockets & drones. The cost has been very high but we have no choice but to prevail.
From the beginning of the Israel taking the war that Hamas started to Hamas in Gaza they have left the tunnels mostly undisturbed It may be because the Israelis think the hostages are being held there and the leadership doesn’t want to pay the political price for destroying the tunnels and possibly killing the hostages. By not destroying the tunnels the Israelis cannot hope to meet their objectives. So the war of attrition will continue until Israel is exhausted. They had an opportunity to respond to Iranian aggression and chose not to. Symbolic missile attacks are worthless. What is answer? I won’t speculate because they wouldn’t listen anyway.
In 9 months, Israel has not achieved either of its declared goals and it seems highly unlikely that, without a significant strategy shift, it will in the future. Unfortunately, the security mistakes that were allowed to fester for years pre-October 7 cannot be undone. And the U.S., no matter who is in office, is not likely going to ride to the rescue.
Israel should propose a firm deadline for release of all hostages and allow Hamas leaders to permanently exit the territory. That appears to be an unassailably reasonable demand. Otherwise, the entire Gaza population should be directed (forced) toward the middle of the Strip and significant territory (e.g., two-thirds of the land area) in the south and north should be annexed by Israel. Israel should then maintain an indefinite “humanitarian” siege, i.e., letting in the bare minimum for basic living requirements, unless and until Hamas meets Israel’s demands.
This should eliminate weapons infiltration from Egypt; reduce IDF losses in fighting a protracted and probably unwinnable guerrilla war in the warrens of Gaza; allow more focus to be directed to the north; diminish Hamas in the eyes of the Gazan population given the territorial losses and deprivation; and provide Israel with a larger bargaining chip in any future negotiations. The “international community” will howl, but Israel’s politicians need to put the security of its population first.
Certainly Mr. Oren povides a depressing and realistic view of Israel's situation and dilemma. Unfortunately, Israel cannot achieve military victories over Hamas and Hezbollah without the full support from the United States. Even if victory could be achieved, the inevitable day after issues are enourmous. The Biden adminstration is incapable of planning and providing a better future for the peolples of the Middle East. They are still working with Obama's plan to elevate Iran's power.
Fortunately, in four months, we in the US can elect and provide new leadership that can tackle these difficult problems and give Israel and its neighbors a secure and peaceful future.
The Jared Kushner-Donald Trump 2019 plan for the Palestinians, that they rejected, included "$50 billion, with $28 billion earmarked for the Palestinian economy, $9 billion for Egypt, $7.5 billion for Jordan, and $6 billion for Lebanon." Most of the money was to to come from Arab Gulf States investors. Such a plan is needed to change the conversation from settling scores to an enriching future for the Palestinian people and their children; turn from self consuming hate to pursuing liberating education and economic opportunities,
Let's hope a new President can diminsh and end the influence those that thrive on enmity and destruction and embolden those who seek peace, prosperity, and progress.
One of the major mistakes Israel made was to pause during Ramadan, and the other was listening to the US. This war may have been completed months ago, and now the enemy believes they have the upper hand. There are a lot of "ifs" at the essay's conclusion, with if being the biggest word in the English language. That word can change it either for the end of the war, or the beginning of a massive war in the Middle East. Let's hope it's the former.
As long as Biden is president, the US will give Israel just enough to defend itself but never enough to win. Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas see the weakness of this administration, so the attacks increase in scope. Biden still hasn’t learned that appeasement leads to defeat not victory. US policy will encourage Hezbollah or Iran to cross a red line. Unlike Obama and Biden, Israel doesn’t ignore red lines, and the war Biden so desperately fears will begin.
Just four more months and pray fully and it’s the Lords will to over come the evil that is in this regime! And He will bless us again with a real President ( Trump ) !
The author took too long to make his excellent argument for Israel. There is an unreal suspicion that those supporting Israel need hundreds of words to be convinced. This is a war started by a terrorist organization bent on destroying not only Israel but also America. Let Israel do what needs to be done to destroy this evil. Actions speak louder than words.
I don't see any way out short of massive war. As you note, Iran (which is the only entity that matters) is convinced that Israel is finished and there is no need to stop things now. A big part of the reason is American weakness. But the bigger part of the reason is that for the past two decades, going back to the last Lebanon war in 2006, Israel has demonstrated that it either lacks the will or the ability to achieve a strategic victory against the Iranian menace, be it Hezbollah or Hamas or anyone else. Why Israel has chosen this path is a major topic for discussion. But I don't think there is any question that a refusal or unwillingness to truly buck the United States has had a lot to do with it. And most of this (outside of Lebanon in 06) is entirely on Netanyahu. He inherited a bad hand, extremely stupid decisions to withdraw from both Lebanon (Barak) and Gaza (Sharon) were perceived not as Israel actions from strength but as defeats. But the 14 years Netanyahu has been in office he has chosen to fight multiple battles against Hamas and not achieve victory in any of them. Now despite the increasing loss of morale and the clear abandonment by the Biden administration, Israel has no choice if it wants to survive. It has to finish Hamas, make it clear that there is NO circumstance under which the UN or others will be allowed to take over again and give a quick DEVASTATING blow to Hezbollah whatever the consequence to the population of Lebanon. Failure to do this could be the beginning of the end for Israel.
I share your belief that a massive war is imminent. However, I am very, very concerned about what the American response will be. Will it simply abandon Israel, as I fear it might? Let the UN swoop in and save both Hamas and Hezbollah (only after massive amounts of Israeli casualties, of course, since the world absolutely loves it when Jews die)? Engage in some token response to the barrage of missiles and rockets that will be directed towards Israel, while handcuffing Israel so as to prevent a decisive response? Will it slink away if, as promised, Hezbollah fires missiles and rockets at American ships? All of these options are on the table, unfortunately.
The only one of these bleak options that isn't possible is the UN "swooping in". That's not possible without full American agreement and that I don't see happening. The UN is toothless. I also don't think at this point Biden can handcuff Israel. If a full war breaks out, Israel will have to win it regardless of what Biden and his fools say.
You're more optimistic than me (not unusual, I'm usually the biggest pessimist around!). I can definitely see the U.S. letting the UN intervene and us just standing aside and abstaining from an anti-Israel Security Council vote. I could also see the U.S. simply refusing to ship any munitions to Israel. Would that be deeply unpopular (except on college campuses)? Yes, but I don't think that this Administration cares.
Well said... With the leadership of both Israel and the U.S. in disarray, Iran is emboldened. Your insight that Israel now has no choice but to wade deeper into this bloody mess and cut off the snake's head is all that is left from a long string of bad decisions and unrealistic assumptions.
I do not believe the world is against us. If just appears that way because the media and academia are against us. According to polls even in Europe the people are supportive of Israel. It's the leaders, some of whom are now in danger of being voted out, who support Hamas. Even the Eurovision popular vote dramatically supported Israel.
It is time for the Israeli government to stop listening to Biden, who may also be on the way out, and do what is right for Israel. The US government executive branch will be forced by Congress to not allow Israel to lose due to lack of arms. In a game of chicken we must be strong. Think Begin and Shamir not Ehud Barak.
I agree but I would also add Gold Meir to that list.
It is hazy but there is lots of evidence that she knew the Arabs were planning an attack in '73 but she held back due to US pressure. I think that's what we shouldn't do. But I still think she was pretty fantastic in her management of the war once it started.
I think she definitely showed her chutzpah when dealing with US leaders. Her final decision made it so.
This is very depressing for me to write but there is no "nice" solution. The only way Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were defeated was though massive destruction of their infrastructure and populations. It should be remembered that even after the use of two Nukes, massive firebombing campaigns with raids of over 1000 B-29's per raid, the Japanese cabinet was split 4-4 between war and peace. The Emperor had to break the tie. Even then there was an attempt by elements of the Japanese Army to continue the war. Israel is faces with a similar situation. The fanaticism on the Palestine side will not be negotiated away. Israel has the same dilemma, smaller scale but just as intractable. Killing the leaders won't end it. Kill a four star General and a three star general takes his place. Kill a three Star General and a two star general takes his place. Basically the only way most wars end is that you kill or incapacitate 1/3 to 2/3 's of the enemy's army. And if the enemy's army is the civilian population? Well. you get the idea. In the closing days of Nazi Germany young boys and old men were drafted. And they fought. Especially the boys.
Israel has to make the Palestinians more afraid of them than they are of Hamas or Hezbollah. They have to push them so far down they have to look up to see the bottom of the barrel, so to speak.
The only slim chance would be a revolution and overthrow in Iran which would deprive Hamas and Hezbollah support coupled with a complete withdrawal of support from the other Arab states.
Chances? Slim to none.
I agree that the real bad actor that needs to be dealt with is Iran. They are the puppet master pulling the strings. I have repeatedly voiced this same mantra, where in all of this are the moderate Sunni Muslim nations who would be far better off with peace with Israel and the removal of the Iranian regime. If they think that by doing nothing with respect to Iran is going to work out for them, I suggest that is foolish thinking. If Israel falls, each of them is sure to be on Iran’s chopping block. The only question is the order in which they will pay the price. Given what is happening in Gaza and now Lebanon, Jordan is likely the next. And all of this is on Europe’s doorstep.
America is led by a dementia patient which is a metaphor for the state of America. Israel’s only hope is to hang on until hopefully Trump gets elected. Then unleash total devastation on both Hezbollah and Hamas; and yes, if need be—as some have suggested—use tactical nuclear weapons. Otherwise, what is the point of having them? The terrorists would have no qualms about using them if they had them.
Unless the enemy is defeated, what future does Israel have?
Regular bombs could do the trick. I am thinking one at the investiture of new Iranian President might be appropriate — assuming he is as bad as the last.
The Iranian president is basically powerless as I understand it. Now, a bomb at the Supreme Leader's place?
They’ve got deep hardened, underground chambers under Iranian mountains. I don’t know that conventional bombs will do the trick.
"Without concluding the principal battle against Hamas, without securing a ceasefire in Gaza either by pressuring Sinwar or eliminating him, and without effectively deterring Iran and Hezbollah, Israel will remain trapped in the brutal syllogism. Brave and concerted action will be required to break that equation and replace it with a radically different one..."
Netanyahu is on the defensive in Israel and Biden is reeling from his debate debacle. I am not sure who would lead this "brave and concerted action" either in Gaza or on the world stage. Any such action would require a tight, focused coalition of support and political confidence both of which are in short supply currently. To continue to "muddle through" seems the most likely outcome and one teeming with danger and unforeseen consequences.
The time to hit Hezbollah is only when Israel has fully deployed its anti-missile laser Iron Beam weapons against Hezbollah and Iran. Not before.
Israel will run out of Iron Dome missiles before Iran and Lebanon will run out of their own offensive weapons. Then Iran and Hezbollah will be able to fire freely into Israel. Iron Beam, I hope, will change everything.
Israel must be unrelenting in Gaza, even if it takes years. The tunnels to Egypt must be eliminated completely and must never be allowed to be rebuilt.
Hamas must be destroyed. The Gazan people must surrender unconditionally.
Technology alone is never enough. Low tech, e.g. people & guns also critical. I am glad the Heredi finally will be required to step up. While I appreciate their belief that divine prayer will protect Israel, it is misguided. How’s that working out so far?
Technology is necessary but not sufficient. But necessary.
Hopefully Israel will never underestimate her enemies again! The world will learn from Israel's experience how to fight the wars of the future fought with GPS guided rockets & drones. The cost has been very high but we have no choice but to prevail.
From the beginning of the Israel taking the war that Hamas started to Hamas in Gaza they have left the tunnels mostly undisturbed It may be because the Israelis think the hostages are being held there and the leadership doesn’t want to pay the political price for destroying the tunnels and possibly killing the hostages. By not destroying the tunnels the Israelis cannot hope to meet their objectives. So the war of attrition will continue until Israel is exhausted. They had an opportunity to respond to Iranian aggression and chose not to. Symbolic missile attacks are worthless. What is answer? I won’t speculate because they wouldn’t listen anyway.
Perhaps IDF is using the tunnels — installing listening and video and bombs for remote detonation.
In 9 months, Israel has not achieved either of its declared goals and it seems highly unlikely that, without a significant strategy shift, it will in the future. Unfortunately, the security mistakes that were allowed to fester for years pre-October 7 cannot be undone. And the U.S., no matter who is in office, is not likely going to ride to the rescue.
Israel should propose a firm deadline for release of all hostages and allow Hamas leaders to permanently exit the territory. That appears to be an unassailably reasonable demand. Otherwise, the entire Gaza population should be directed (forced) toward the middle of the Strip and significant territory (e.g., two-thirds of the land area) in the south and north should be annexed by Israel. Israel should then maintain an indefinite “humanitarian” siege, i.e., letting in the bare minimum for basic living requirements, unless and until Hamas meets Israel’s demands.
This should eliminate weapons infiltration from Egypt; reduce IDF losses in fighting a protracted and probably unwinnable guerrilla war in the warrens of Gaza; allow more focus to be directed to the north; diminish Hamas in the eyes of the Gazan population given the territorial losses and deprivation; and provide Israel with a larger bargaining chip in any future negotiations. The “international community” will howl, but Israel’s politicians need to put the security of its population first.
Very clear-sighted. I hope this comes to pass. Sinwar has been offered exile so attaching the time condition is now the only way to proceed.
Certainly Mr. Oren povides a depressing and realistic view of Israel's situation and dilemma. Unfortunately, Israel cannot achieve military victories over Hamas and Hezbollah without the full support from the United States. Even if victory could be achieved, the inevitable day after issues are enourmous. The Biden adminstration is incapable of planning and providing a better future for the peolples of the Middle East. They are still working with Obama's plan to elevate Iran's power.
Fortunately, in four months, we in the US can elect and provide new leadership that can tackle these difficult problems and give Israel and its neighbors a secure and peaceful future.
The Jared Kushner-Donald Trump 2019 plan for the Palestinians, that they rejected, included "$50 billion, with $28 billion earmarked for the Palestinian economy, $9 billion for Egypt, $7.5 billion for Jordan, and $6 billion for Lebanon." Most of the money was to to come from Arab Gulf States investors. Such a plan is needed to change the conversation from settling scores to an enriching future for the Palestinian people and their children; turn from self consuming hate to pursuing liberating education and economic opportunities,
Let's hope a new President can diminsh and end the influence those that thrive on enmity and destruction and embolden those who seek peace, prosperity, and progress.
One of the major mistakes Israel made was to pause during Ramadan, and the other was listening to the US. This war may have been completed months ago, and now the enemy believes they have the upper hand. There are a lot of "ifs" at the essay's conclusion, with if being the biggest word in the English language. That word can change it either for the end of the war, or the beginning of a massive war in the Middle East. Let's hope it's the former.
I'm pessimistic but not that pessimistic.
As long as Biden is president, the US will give Israel just enough to defend itself but never enough to win. Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas see the weakness of this administration, so the attacks increase in scope. Biden still hasn’t learned that appeasement leads to defeat not victory. US policy will encourage Hezbollah or Iran to cross a red line. Unlike Obama and Biden, Israel doesn’t ignore red lines, and the war Biden so desperately fears will begin.
It’s Netanyahu who agree to a ceasefire.
Just four more months and pray fully and it’s the Lords will to over come the evil that is in this regime! And He will bless us again with a real President ( Trump ) !
The author took too long to make his excellent argument for Israel. There is an unreal suspicion that those supporting Israel need hundreds of words to be convinced. This is a war started by a terrorist organization bent on destroying not only Israel but also America. Let Israel do what needs to be done to destroy this evil. Actions speak louder than words.