With less than a year to go until the U.S. presidential election and the Middle East deep in crisis, the Biden administration has, almost coincidentally, decided to come up with a Middle East policy.
Here’s what the Biden Doctrine should look like but won’t.
1. We stand by our ally Israel and will support it in its goal to eradicate Hamas either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
2. We call on Hamas to surrender and unconditionally release the hostages.
3. Behind the scenes, we orchestrate the scenario in which every Hamas leader in Qatar is turned over to U.S. custody for prosecution on terror against Americans and other charges and otherwise have Qatar decide whose side they’re on or loss its status as a major non-NATO partner.
4. Egypt agrees to open its border to Gazan women, children below 14, the elderly and infirm and the U.S. will assist in their care.
5. UNRWA will be replaced with the refugees portfolio picked up by the UNHCR and subject to that agency’s definition of “refugee”, not UNRWA’s. Social service and welfare will be made directly to country in which Palestinians currently reside, and will be phased out in 5 years.
6. Hezbollah will fully comply with UNSC 1701 and disarm. Components of the 6th Fleet will be offshore until U.S. can certify compliance. Hezbollah will be black listed as a narco-terror group with its assets subject to seizure and forfeiture.
7. Saudi Arabia and other interested countries may join the Abraham Accords to further stabilize the region.
8. The U.S. will create a regional defense force similar to SEATO etc. An attack on any will be deemed an attack on all.
9. The U.S. will support the Saudi plan for the creation of a Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine with Amman as its capital. Jerusalem remains undivided and Israeli. Everything West of the Jordan and not incorporated into Israel by final agreement is demilitarized. “Right” of return is extinguished.
10. Economic and other sanctions will be placed on Iran to the same extent as would be the case by invoking the JCPOA’s snapback provision until it disbands its nuclear program, terminates its ballistic missile program and ends its support of regional terror proxies.
I’m sure I missed many things, but I wanted to respect Clemenceau’s critique of Wilson’s 14 Points.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc... When will the U.S. admit we are not very good at figuring out Middle East power plays and leave it to the locals to battle it out among themselves. The UN estimates there are over 100 million stateless or displaced persons living in refugee camps worldwide. Many of these are from Arab on Arab violence in the Middle East and Africa often due to violence from Islamist organizations. This is a systemic internal cause fueled by radical Islam - both Sunni and Shia. The West cannot help the Middle East until they are ready to help themselves. I see no signs of that ground roots transformation brewing anytime soon. Until real change happens, there will be a series of zero-sum hostilities adding to the growing ranks of desperate refugees.
This has been evident for decades. The world, including especially the "progressive", mindless politicians and students in the US and the West, don't give a rat's _ _ s about other refugees or victims of the 2 dozen other wars going on in the world (most involving Arabs and Muslims fighting each other). They simply can't stomach the idea of Jews defending themselves and living in autonomy in their own country. Unfortunately, too many Jews (self-hating or just delusional) are in the "progressive", mindless camp.
Biden and Friedman dishonestly elide the critical Palestinian demand of a right of return into Israel. Absent such a demand the Israeli/Palestinian conflict would be just another border dispute in a world filled with them.
Hamas, for their part, gained a tactical victory against an inattentive Israeli defense establishment. Had they limited themselves to killing a few border police and taking a few military age hostages, Israel would by now have elected a new left wing government and sued for peace. Instead, Hamas and Gazan civilians instituted a pogrom, thereby insuring that any peace will be on expansionist and absolutist Zionist terms for the foreseeable future.
The problem for American presidents who want to solve the crisis in the Middle East is that none of these crises can be solved in one or two presidential terms.
In addition, any crisis in the Middle East cannot be resolved by signing a treaty or five treaties. This won't work. It is necessary to build systems of relationships for a long time, patiently and hard, to revise views and break very old, sometimes medieval forms of lifestyle.
Any attempt to speed up the process only delays its solution and aggravates the crisis.
The Oslo Accords erased fifty years of building the state of Israel and caused damage that has not yet been corrected. The two-state solution for two peoples led to the 10/7 massacre.
In any agreement that is concluded without unconditional recognition of the existence of the Israeli state, the Arabs see the hope of the destruction of Israel. This creates motivation for further escalation.
Now we need to first destroy the military power of Hamas, and then destroy the desire to kill Jews in the minds of Arabs.
Only after this can we begin to think about the peace process.
Incredibly well written. Biden (or his handlers) also is suddenly concerned about the mess at the US border and the harm and danger stemming from that. What happened for the last three years? We have the worst choice ever in the history of the US at the polls next November unless a miracle happens.
In the spirit of Purim, I’d cast Obama in the role of Haman. He sought to appease Iran and weaken Israel but instead strengthened ties between Israel and the Gulf States ultimately culminating in the Abraham Accords
Then came the V’Hafachu of the Trump administration. On the one hand, Trump emboldened Israel and its Gulf allies while isolating Iran and crushing any realistic aspirations of Moderate Palestinians
On the other hand, Trump’s indiscriminate imposition of “maximum pressure” on our strategic competitors while simultaneously threatening withdrawal of security protection from our strategic allies had the unintended consequence of unifying and intensifying the expansionist ambitions of revisionist states (like China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) while heightening geopolitical insecurities in the rest of the world.
Then came the next V’Hafachu of the Biden administration. By returning to Obama’s policy of Iranian appeasement while turning his back on the Gulf States and our Afghanistan allies, he exacerbated already existing global insecurity and revisionist aggression (China versus Taiwan, Russia versus Ukraine, Iran’s axis of resistance versus Israel, etc).
It was this very same geopolitical insecurity that drove the Guif States to seek a temporary truce with Iran while playing on Biden’s aspirations on the Abraham Accords to extract security guarantees and a rival nuclear threat capability.
October 7th revealed just how many Emperors wore no clothes. Biden is now trying desperately to reverse the damage caused by three successive US administrations (as well as the Netanyahu government) in the lead up to October 7th.
He has too much stubborn pride and delusions of grandeur to step aside and hence will say anything to win re-election. But he also has enough integrity and moral courage to stand up against those demanding an immediate ceasefire or conditioning aid to Israel
Supporters of Trump should ask themselves whether an America First policy — e.g., an abandonment of Ukraine and a refusal to support delinquent NATO and Asian allies — will really make the world (and Israel) a safer place?
The only thing worse is Biden’s replacement by a member of the Progressive Caucus
The foreign media love quoting Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, and while their chauvinist populist nationalism and aggressive racist authoritarianism respectively do have their target audiences, even during war-time they remain a minority. The people running the war are the four Chiefs of Staff: Gallant, Gantz, Eisenkot and the current incumbent, Hertzi Halevi. They're running the show on the ground and they will be there after Netanyahu's fall at the next election. None of them are Rabin, or even Sharon - though after the death of Eisenkot's son on the battlefield he does have a greater connection with the Zionist-Israeli public - but the four of them together could steer the mainstream of the Zionist-Israeli public.
As for our Palestinian neighbours, after the destruction of Hamas's military capability and the removal of its leadership, way or another, from Gaza and after the removal of the Fatah's geriatric kleptocracy from the West Bank, there will be an even greater vacuum of authority and legitimacy. Marwan Barghouti has for two decades now been spoken of by Palestinians the one person able to unite and lead them. Lead them where and how we do not know. Of course no-one in Israel is talking of a fully sovereign Palestinian state on 1949 (Green Line) borders. But that's a straw man. That's not what we're talking about. A technocratic government taking care of critical administration while a legitimate and united leadership run by Barghouti negotiates for the future of the Palestinian people is surely better than... what? The removal of the PA leading to chaos and/or full control by the IDF and a de facto single state with a majority of (very angry) Palestinians? Yes Hamas would get some credit in the history books were this to happen now. (Perhaps it should have been done before) But that is not the same as them overrunning the territories. Barghouti surely would govern not out of some sense of debt to Hamas but out of his own sense of purpose and history in the interests of his people as he understood them.
For Israel, and I am a Zionist-Israeli, whatever happened next would surely be better than full occupation, leading to another initifada, death, suffering and a de facto single state characterised by (an unsustainable) apartheid and our eventual minority status... an outcome which has not ended up well for us in the past nor for other communities in this region in the present. So for us, this must be the least bad option.
Here’s what the Biden Doctrine should look like but won’t.
1. We stand by our ally Israel and will support it in its goal to eradicate Hamas either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
2. We call on Hamas to surrender and unconditionally release the hostages.
3. Behind the scenes, we orchestrate the scenario in which every Hamas leader in Qatar is turned over to U.S. custody for prosecution on terror against Americans and other charges and otherwise have Qatar decide whose side they’re on or loss its status as a major non-NATO partner.
4. Egypt agrees to open its border to Gazan women, children below 14, the elderly and infirm and the U.S. will assist in their care.
5. UNRWA will be replaced with the refugees portfolio picked up by the UNHCR and subject to that agency’s definition of “refugee”, not UNRWA’s. Social service and welfare will be made directly to country in which Palestinians currently reside, and will be phased out in 5 years.
6. Hezbollah will fully comply with UNSC 1701 and disarm. Components of the 6th Fleet will be offshore until U.S. can certify compliance. Hezbollah will be black listed as a narco-terror group with its assets subject to seizure and forfeiture.
7. Saudi Arabia and other interested countries may join the Abraham Accords to further stabilize the region.
8. The U.S. will create a regional defense force similar to SEATO etc. An attack on any will be deemed an attack on all.
9. The U.S. will support the Saudi plan for the creation of a Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine with Amman as its capital. Jerusalem remains undivided and Israeli. Everything West of the Jordan and not incorporated into Israel by final agreement is demilitarized. “Right” of return is extinguished.
10. Economic and other sanctions will be placed on Iran to the same extent as would be the case by invoking the JCPOA’s snapback provision until it disbands its nuclear program, terminates its ballistic missile program and ends its support of regional terror proxies.
I’m sure I missed many things, but I wanted to respect Clemenceau’s critique of Wilson’s 14 Points.
If Thomas Friedman favors it then it is almost certainly wrong or stupid or both.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc... When will the U.S. admit we are not very good at figuring out Middle East power plays and leave it to the locals to battle it out among themselves. The UN estimates there are over 100 million stateless or displaced persons living in refugee camps worldwide. Many of these are from Arab on Arab violence in the Middle East and Africa often due to violence from Islamist organizations. This is a systemic internal cause fueled by radical Islam - both Sunni and Shia. The West cannot help the Middle East until they are ready to help themselves. I see no signs of that ground roots transformation brewing anytime soon. Until real change happens, there will be a series of zero-sum hostilities adding to the growing ranks of desperate refugees.
https://reporting.unhcr.org/globalappeal-2023#:~:text=2023%20Global%20planning%20figures&text=117.2%20million%20people%20will%20be,an%20unprecedented%20spike%20in%20numbers.
This has been evident for decades. The world, including especially the "progressive", mindless politicians and students in the US and the West, don't give a rat's _ _ s about other refugees or victims of the 2 dozen other wars going on in the world (most involving Arabs and Muslims fighting each other). They simply can't stomach the idea of Jews defending themselves and living in autonomy in their own country. Unfortunately, too many Jews (self-hating or just delusional) are in the "progressive", mindless camp.
Biden and Friedman dishonestly elide the critical Palestinian demand of a right of return into Israel. Absent such a demand the Israeli/Palestinian conflict would be just another border dispute in a world filled with them.
Hamas, for their part, gained a tactical victory against an inattentive Israeli defense establishment. Had they limited themselves to killing a few border police and taking a few military age hostages, Israel would by now have elected a new left wing government and sued for peace. Instead, Hamas and Gazan civilians instituted a pogrom, thereby insuring that any peace will be on expansionist and absolutist Zionist terms for the foreseeable future.
The problem for American presidents who want to solve the crisis in the Middle East is that none of these crises can be solved in one or two presidential terms.
In addition, any crisis in the Middle East cannot be resolved by signing a treaty or five treaties. This won't work. It is necessary to build systems of relationships for a long time, patiently and hard, to revise views and break very old, sometimes medieval forms of lifestyle.
Any attempt to speed up the process only delays its solution and aggravates the crisis.
The Oslo Accords erased fifty years of building the state of Israel and caused damage that has not yet been corrected. The two-state solution for two peoples led to the 10/7 massacre.
In any agreement that is concluded without unconditional recognition of the existence of the Israeli state, the Arabs see the hope of the destruction of Israel. This creates motivation for further escalation.
Now we need to first destroy the military power of Hamas, and then destroy the desire to kill Jews in the minds of Arabs.
Only after this can we begin to think about the peace process.
Very, very well thought through. Written so well, I read it twice. Thank you Michael Oren for introducing me/us to Jay Mens!
Incredibly well written. Biden (or his handlers) also is suddenly concerned about the mess at the US border and the harm and danger stemming from that. What happened for the last three years? We have the worst choice ever in the history of the US at the polls next November unless a miracle happens.
US is compromised by Islamists. Oren knows it but can't say it.
Brilliant presentation.
In the spirit of Purim, I’d cast Obama in the role of Haman. He sought to appease Iran and weaken Israel but instead strengthened ties between Israel and the Gulf States ultimately culminating in the Abraham Accords
Then came the V’Hafachu of the Trump administration. On the one hand, Trump emboldened Israel and its Gulf allies while isolating Iran and crushing any realistic aspirations of Moderate Palestinians
On the other hand, Trump’s indiscriminate imposition of “maximum pressure” on our strategic competitors while simultaneously threatening withdrawal of security protection from our strategic allies had the unintended consequence of unifying and intensifying the expansionist ambitions of revisionist states (like China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) while heightening geopolitical insecurities in the rest of the world.
Then came the next V’Hafachu of the Biden administration. By returning to Obama’s policy of Iranian appeasement while turning his back on the Gulf States and our Afghanistan allies, he exacerbated already existing global insecurity and revisionist aggression (China versus Taiwan, Russia versus Ukraine, Iran’s axis of resistance versus Israel, etc).
It was this very same geopolitical insecurity that drove the Guif States to seek a temporary truce with Iran while playing on Biden’s aspirations on the Abraham Accords to extract security guarantees and a rival nuclear threat capability.
October 7th revealed just how many Emperors wore no clothes. Biden is now trying desperately to reverse the damage caused by three successive US administrations (as well as the Netanyahu government) in the lead up to October 7th.
He has too much stubborn pride and delusions of grandeur to step aside and hence will say anything to win re-election. But he also has enough integrity and moral courage to stand up against those demanding an immediate ceasefire or conditioning aid to Israel
Supporters of Trump should ask themselves whether an America First policy — e.g., an abandonment of Ukraine and a refusal to support delinquent NATO and Asian allies — will really make the world (and Israel) a safer place?
The only thing worse is Biden’s replacement by a member of the Progressive Caucus
Very interesting.
The foreign media love quoting Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, and while their chauvinist populist nationalism and aggressive racist authoritarianism respectively do have their target audiences, even during war-time they remain a minority. The people running the war are the four Chiefs of Staff: Gallant, Gantz, Eisenkot and the current incumbent, Hertzi Halevi. They're running the show on the ground and they will be there after Netanyahu's fall at the next election. None of them are Rabin, or even Sharon - though after the death of Eisenkot's son on the battlefield he does have a greater connection with the Zionist-Israeli public - but the four of them together could steer the mainstream of the Zionist-Israeli public.
As for our Palestinian neighbours, after the destruction of Hamas's military capability and the removal of its leadership, way or another, from Gaza and after the removal of the Fatah's geriatric kleptocracy from the West Bank, there will be an even greater vacuum of authority and legitimacy. Marwan Barghouti has for two decades now been spoken of by Palestinians the one person able to unite and lead them. Lead them where and how we do not know. Of course no-one in Israel is talking of a fully sovereign Palestinian state on 1949 (Green Line) borders. But that's a straw man. That's not what we're talking about. A technocratic government taking care of critical administration while a legitimate and united leadership run by Barghouti negotiates for the future of the Palestinian people is surely better than... what? The removal of the PA leading to chaos and/or full control by the IDF and a de facto single state with a majority of (very angry) Palestinians? Yes Hamas would get some credit in the history books were this to happen now. (Perhaps it should have been done before) But that is not the same as them overrunning the territories. Barghouti surely would govern not out of some sense of debt to Hamas but out of his own sense of purpose and history in the interests of his people as he understood them.
For Israel, and I am a Zionist-Israeli, whatever happened next would surely be better than full occupation, leading to another initifada, death, suffering and a de facto single state characterised by (an unsustainable) apartheid and our eventual minority status... an outcome which has not ended up well for us in the past nor for other communities in this region in the present. So for us, this must be the least bad option.