While the primary focus remains on Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, the specter of a full-scale conflict in northern Israel and southern Lebanon casts a long shadow on the people of the region and their hope for a peaceful future. The question of a practical approach by the United States to the problem of Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization, has never been more critical to the fate of the region.
The violence in the middle east will continue until there are consequences felt by Iran. The Biden administration is trying to mitigate those consequences for Hamas. Very unwise policy. Resolution and victory is the most likely policy to achieve a satisfactory solution for everyone.
Hamas committed the most despicable assault on Jews since the holocaust, and has vowed to commit such acts as many times as it takes until Israel is eliminated. And yet, even under those circumstances, Israel has virtually no support for its defensive actions in Gaza (unless you credit the mealy-mouthed lip-service that emanates from Washington). Worse, the world actively opposes Israel’s defense, with daily accusations of genocide and threats of arms embargos.
So, against the far more formidable force of Hezbollah, what are the odds that “an empowered and effective international force” or “American [led] diplomacy” will come to Israel’s rescue? Suffice it to say I won’t be putting my money on that outcome.
Any first step will require the Biden Administration to undo President Obama’s designation of Lebanon as an Iranian equity in whose internal management the U.S. will not interfere. That principle informs our fantasy that the LAF is independent of and not subservient to Hezbollah. It also underlies our approach that saw Israel surrender part of its sovereign territory to facilitate Lebanon’s offshore gas development without at a minimum settling the fake border dispute.
The short answer to the question is that no Western power will risk their own blood and treasure to rescue Lebanon. Why should they when they know that Israel will have to resolve the issue eventually - and when it inevitably does, these same countries will critique from the sidelines, tell Israel it should proceed differently and place Lebanese lives over Israeli ones and pass various resolutions seeking to limit the IDF’s room for maneuver … all in the vain hope that the jihadists will see them as supporters to be left alone rather than unprincipled apologists fearful of certain minority groups living in their midst.
Israel’s best hope for the inevitable is to very publicly (1) lay the PR groundwork for what is about to happen and (2) adopt the US’s own Powell Doctrine (massive use of force to achieve the war goals quickly with a non-public plan to get out - and maybe that plan envisions a trusteeship involving Saudi Arabia and others)
What Lebanon shows is that "international law" only applies if it damages Israel, hence Hezbollah is free to flout UN resolution 1701 that required it to withdraw behind the Litani.
The only place where international intervention worked was in Sidon, Lebanon, where the French took over security and prevented it from being used by anti-Israel groups in exchange for Israel's agreement not to hit targets in Sidon.
Perhaps it's time to revive the Sykes-Picot Treaty for Lebanon and place it under French rule? It's clear the locals have not shown any capacity for managing their own affairs in the last 68 years.
As we all now realize, Hezbollah is financed mainly by Iran, which also has supplied its weapons and doctrine along with political control of much of Lebanon. So the wish for peace to be established between Israel and Lebanon, there is a need for this evil support to cease. It is all very well claiming that these two sides should make peace, indeed they should, but unless Iran become a far smaller factor and supporter of Hezbollah it would not be possible. As we say here in Israel: "the fish stinks from its head".
It is incredibly frustrating that through their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houtis in Yemen, Iran has given more than enough provocation to the U.S. to confront them directly, including but not limited to their direct culpability for the loss of American servicemen's lives, and yet the Biden administration continues to try to placate them. Russia is hopelessly mired in Ukraine, and is in no position to intervene. The U.S. would find significant Middle Eastern support for defanging Iran.
While yes, Lebanon is a failed country, it is located on the path of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and has great potential. Western countries cannot get involved because of old colonial resentments but China can invest without such baggage. China is making all sorts of inroads into the Levant and Beirut would be a nice addition to their trade portfolio. Peace with Lebanon can only happen after Lebanon is pulled out of its financial death spiral. The key to that is China, not Iran. Perhaps a joint investment by Saudi Arabia and China can happen. The solution is bigger than Israel and will require a non-Western coalition to achieve. http://ag.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/202212/t20221211_10988783.htm
What has happened to Maronite influence in what little remains of Lebanon?Have most of the indigenous Christians left the country now?Do they consider themselves to be natural allies of Israel or have they succumbed to the intimidation meted out to their fellow Christians in Iraq and Syria?
There will be no peace, never ever, when the opposite party swears to eradicate you and all your families within your borders, and then continue to murder your people in every corner of the world. No peace for Terrorists. EVER
The violence in the middle east will continue until there are consequences felt by Iran. The Biden administration is trying to mitigate those consequences for Hamas. Very unwise policy. Resolution and victory is the most likely policy to achieve a satisfactory solution for everyone.
Hamas committed the most despicable assault on Jews since the holocaust, and has vowed to commit such acts as many times as it takes until Israel is eliminated. And yet, even under those circumstances, Israel has virtually no support for its defensive actions in Gaza (unless you credit the mealy-mouthed lip-service that emanates from Washington). Worse, the world actively opposes Israel’s defense, with daily accusations of genocide and threats of arms embargos.
So, against the far more formidable force of Hezbollah, what are the odds that “an empowered and effective international force” or “American [led] diplomacy” will come to Israel’s rescue? Suffice it to say I won’t be putting my money on that outcome.
Any first step will require the Biden Administration to undo President Obama’s designation of Lebanon as an Iranian equity in whose internal management the U.S. will not interfere. That principle informs our fantasy that the LAF is independent of and not subservient to Hezbollah. It also underlies our approach that saw Israel surrender part of its sovereign territory to facilitate Lebanon’s offshore gas development without at a minimum settling the fake border dispute.
The short answer to the question is that no Western power will risk their own blood and treasure to rescue Lebanon. Why should they when they know that Israel will have to resolve the issue eventually - and when it inevitably does, these same countries will critique from the sidelines, tell Israel it should proceed differently and place Lebanese lives over Israeli ones and pass various resolutions seeking to limit the IDF’s room for maneuver … all in the vain hope that the jihadists will see them as supporters to be left alone rather than unprincipled apologists fearful of certain minority groups living in their midst.
Israel’s best hope for the inevitable is to very publicly (1) lay the PR groundwork for what is about to happen and (2) adopt the US’s own Powell Doctrine (massive use of force to achieve the war goals quickly with a non-public plan to get out - and maybe that plan envisions a trusteeship involving Saudi Arabia and others)
What Lebanon shows is that "international law" only applies if it damages Israel, hence Hezbollah is free to flout UN resolution 1701 that required it to withdraw behind the Litani.
The only place where international intervention worked was in Sidon, Lebanon, where the French took over security and prevented it from being used by anti-Israel groups in exchange for Israel's agreement not to hit targets in Sidon.
Perhaps it's time to revive the Sykes-Picot Treaty for Lebanon and place it under French rule? It's clear the locals have not shown any capacity for managing their own affairs in the last 68 years.
As we all now realize, Hezbollah is financed mainly by Iran, which also has supplied its weapons and doctrine along with political control of much of Lebanon. So the wish for peace to be established between Israel and Lebanon, there is a need for this evil support to cease. It is all very well claiming that these two sides should make peace, indeed they should, but unless Iran become a far smaller factor and supporter of Hezbollah it would not be possible. As we say here in Israel: "the fish stinks from its head".
It is incredibly frustrating that through their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houtis in Yemen, Iran has given more than enough provocation to the U.S. to confront them directly, including but not limited to their direct culpability for the loss of American servicemen's lives, and yet the Biden administration continues to try to placate them. Russia is hopelessly mired in Ukraine, and is in no position to intervene. The U.S. would find significant Middle Eastern support for defanging Iran.
While yes, Lebanon is a failed country, it is located on the path of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and has great potential. Western countries cannot get involved because of old colonial resentments but China can invest without such baggage. China is making all sorts of inroads into the Levant and Beirut would be a nice addition to their trade portfolio. Peace with Lebanon can only happen after Lebanon is pulled out of its financial death spiral. The key to that is China, not Iran. Perhaps a joint investment by Saudi Arabia and China can happen. The solution is bigger than Israel and will require a non-Western coalition to achieve. http://ag.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/202212/t20221211_10988783.htm
What has happened to Maronite influence in what little remains of Lebanon?Have most of the indigenous Christians left the country now?Do they consider themselves to be natural allies of Israel or have they succumbed to the intimidation meted out to their fellow Christians in Iraq and Syria?
Hamas is Mossad:
https://www.jewworldorder.org/hamas-founded-mossad-israel/
https://politicalvelcraft.org/2015/06/28/hamas-created-by-israels-mossad-this-stranglehold-has-got-to-be-broken/
Muslim Brotherhood = Mossad
Hamas = Mossad
ISIS = Mossad/CIA
White Helmets = Mossad
Daesh = Mossad
Al-Queda = CIA
NO ceasefire! Give HAMAS no Quater.
There will be no peace, never ever, when the opposite party swears to eradicate you and all your families within your borders, and then continue to murder your people in every corner of the world. No peace for Terrorists. EVER
Very well said and explained!