The Upside of Down
The single issue that unites most of Israeli society and will influence the next Israeli election.
Amid the rising number of our soldiers who have fallen, the unbearable suffering of the hostages and their families, the endless international condemnations, and bitter divisions within Israeli society, it’s difficult to find positive aspects of almost 700 days of war. And yet, in certain ways, the war has changed Israel for the better and contributed substantially to its future survival.
The most obvious “benefit” of the war is the lifesaving lesson learned, albeit at an excruciating price, regarding the buildup of massive terrorist forces along our borders. Never will the Israeli government ever let that happen again. Never will we forfeit the need for deep buffer zones along all our frontiers. Never again will the IDF favor a defensive over an offensive strategy—Iron Dome over tanks and armored personnel carriers—and rely almost exclusively on technology rather than soldiers to guard our land. Never again will our reservists go years without training or go into battle without even the most basic gear.
In 2021, in an article in the American Jewish magazine Tablet, I called for an end to American military aid to Israel. Receiving such aid, I argued, was undignified for an affluent, sovereign country like Israel and enabled our critics to blackmail us by threatening to cut off support if we didn’t act as they wished. Aid also made us dependent on the U.S. for crucial types of tank and artillery ammunition. That dependency, I warned, could prove very dangerous in a war over which American and Israeli leaders disagreed.
Today, four years later—and nearly two years after 10/7—Israeli policymakers agree that Israel must never again be ammunition-dependent on the U.S. or any other foreign power. They understand that the old arrangement of “Israel begs and America gives” must be replaced by a new partnership in which Americans and Israelis participate as equals in strengthening their mutual security.
These security results of the war, however beneficial, pale beside its most transformative outcome. If, before the war, the questions of Haredi military service and integration into the economy were important but still open to debate, today that discussion has ended.
It ended thanks to the sight of tens of thousands of young Haredi men refusing to serve while hundreds of thousands of Israelis—right wing and left, religious and secular—risked their lives for their country. Today, perhaps no single issue unites most of Israeli society and will have the largest impact on the next Israeli election.
If not for the war, the Haredi communities would have grown to be the largest single block in the society, while contributing almost nothing to it economically. In time, that society would have collapsed. The war has been deeply traumatic for Israel. The healing process will take many years. But in certain crucial areas—in defending our borders, arming our troops, and ensuring the survival of our society—the war has not been beneficial; it may well have saved us.
This article was originally published in Hebrew on Ynet on August 27, 2025.
Politics is very fractured here in the US. If the democrats were ever given control of the presidency & congress, I don't think this would bode well for Israel. Now is a great time for Israel to become self sufficient with respect to military ordinance.
I am re-reading 2048 for the 3rd time. Thank you for your prescience and your continuing to provide clarity on a regular basis. Understanding of the political and social complexities are beyond challenging for us in the United States, so your perspectives resonate deeply! From within the United States, all political parties fully recognize Israel's offensive and defensive dominance as the preeminent Middle Eastern regional nuclear power. Irrespective of their "subjective interpretations" of these realities, Israeli regional relationships and drive toward ammunition independence are on our minds. We are hopeful and soberly optimistic that Israel's focus upon continued maturation of relationships with Druze (in As-Suweyda), non-combatant clans in Gaza and the West Bank, Kurds in north-northeast Syria and northwest Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran proper, India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will bear fruit for centuries to come. These neighbors certainly have every natural resource needed for ammunition independence. Combining regional economic/trade and mutual security opportunities with Israel's munitions technical expertise, Israel's external and internal future comes into relief. Am Yisrael Chai!!