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Does Iran Think it Won the War?

After defeating the Regime militarily, the United States and Israel must disabuse it

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Michael Oren
Jul 03, 2025
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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets defense scientists, officials, and experts in Tehran, Iran (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader)

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Israelis have every reason to celebrate the extraordinary and historic achievements of the IDF during Operation Rising Lion. Over the course of a mere 12 days, Israel knocked out over half of Iran's missile and launching capabilities, eliminated dozens of military leaders and nuclear scientists, destroyed key regime facilities, and degraded fortified nuclear plants – all without losing a single plane or soldier. It is a military victory that will be studied by scholars for generations. Similarly, Israelis are fully justified in extolling the remarkable display of U.S.-Israel cooperation culminating in the B-2 bombings at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

In my memoir, Ally: My Journey Across the American-Israeli Divide, I posited that the world looks at the alliance between the United States and Israel as a litmus of America’s strength in general. In the aftermath of America’s Operation Midnight Hammer, as President Trump called it, there can be little doubt about the alliance’s might and American muscularity.

All of that is true from an Israeli and American perspective. But how do Iran’s rulers view this war? Were they, as we believe, humiliated, unnerved, and deterred? Or will they again dare to test either Jerusalem or Washington’s resolve?

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